Expert Says This Winter Will Be Much Warmer, Drier

DENVER -- Back to back snow storms last winter bring back an avalanche of memories. Who can forget the 45-plus inches of snow that fell between December and January?

The conditions were especially tough for travelers. The string of snowstorms was anything but normal, and the winter of 2006-2007 ended with more snow than an average winter.

According to Klaus Wolter, an atmospheric scientist working with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association in Boulder, the rapid succession of snowstorms last winter was rare.

"We have never, in 110 years of weather records, seen anything like that in the middle of winter," Wolter said.

Wolter knows winter weather. He's an expert in long-range seasonal forecasts, analyzing data from oceans and continents around the world. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions from the tropical Pacific, Indian Ocean, and the North Atlantic all factor into his forecasts.

So what is the forecast for this winter in Colorado?

Wolter predicts the approaching winter will be much drier than last year, and much drier than normal.

"Probably a few more wind storms. Probably one or two good cold snaps, but nothing as prolonged as last year, where it was reinforced by all that snow on the ground," said Wolter.

In other words, the news isn't good. The northern and central mountains look to be especially dry, which is not only bad news for skiers, but for water supplies as well.

Seasonal snowfall has been well below average for seven of the last 10 years. For the three years when the average seasonal snowfall was reached or exceeded, it was only one or two major snowstorms that were responsible for tipping the scales.

"I hope that I am wrong, but I am very concerned that by next spring we're talking a drought again," Wolter said.

The irony is that a strong La Nina is developing in the tropical Pacific.

Typically, these cooler-than-normal waters in the equatorial Pacific change the storm track over the United States. More snow tends to fall in Colorado's northern and central mountains during La Nina conditions. Eastern and southwestern Colorado tend to be drier, but this year it appears the entire region will be drier than normal.

Early indications are that the storm track over the United States will be too far to the north, leaving Colorado high and dry.