Mike's Weather Blog -- July 2005

July 31, 2005 -- August '05 Preview And A Look At Past Weather

In yesterday's blog entry we talked about what Mother Nature brings to the Front Range in a typical August. Today we'll take a look at the 30-day outlook by the Climate Prediction Center, as well as some climatology for the area.

The 30-day forecast shows equal chances for normal precipitation and temperatures across most of Colorado the entire month. Northwest Colorado is included in a bubble of above normal temperatures for the period.

In the short term, it looks like August 2005 will start out on the warm side, picking up right where July left off. We should see upper 80s to mid 90s for the next few days.

There is a pool of cooler air pressing its way southward through Canada, and at this time, does look like it will have enough momentum to push this ridge of high pressure (hot bubble of dry air) to the southeast. In doing so, the front would deliver some heat relief to the region by late in the upcoming week.

If you recall, this sounds a bit like what we saw in late July, when a cold front brought an end to our 100° streak of afternoon highs. The only difference is this cold front may not be as cool...meaning highs in the 70s once it passes by, as opposed to the 60s we saw on July 26th.

We are talking approximately 120 hours into the future, and of course things can change in the world of weather. For now, we'll keep our fingers crossed for a little heat relief, and our eyes looking toward Canada at the progress of this cooler air.

Now last year, August started off quite warm, with highs between 88° and 96° the first 7-days. After that, the weather pattern became quite unsettled with several waves of cool air moving into Colorado. The month ended as the 7th coolest on record, with record lows set or tied five times.

12th - 49° overnight
13th - 48° overnight
27th - 55° (record low daytime maximum)
27th - 48° overnight
28th - 42° overnight

It was a wet month with 2.84" of precip recorded in the official rain gauge.

The average temperature for August in Denver is 71.7° (Note: average temperature for the month means adding up all the highs and lows recorded, then taking an average).

August is the 4th wettest month of the year for Denver, with 1.82" the average precipitation. That is all rainfall, as no snow has ever been recorded in Denver in the month of August.

Here is how the past 10 years have faired, with the average temperature listed first, followed by the month's precipitation...

2004 -- 68.2°, 2.84" (tie for 7th coolest August in Denver's history)
2003 -- 73.7°, 1.24"
2002 -- 71.5°, 0.78"
2001 -- 73.3°, 0.71"
2000 -- 74.5°, 3.06" (6th warmest August in Denver's history)
1999 -- 71.2°, 3.37" (7th wettest August in Denver's history)
1998 -- 71.7°, 1.19"
1997 -- 69.7°, 3.52" (5th wettest August in Denver's history)
1996 -- 71.6°, 0.56"
1995 -- 75.3°, 1.04" (2nd warmest August in Denver's history)

In taking a quick look at some of the warmest August's on record, I don't see any direct correlation with record setting warmth in the previous July. Only 1934 and 2000 have both July and August in the same year ranked within the top 10 warmest. So it wouldn't be a fair statement to say an exceptionally warm record setting July often brings the same in August.

The same goes for the driest on record. Only 2 years (1917 and 1978) have both July and August of the same year in the top 10 driest.

As the high pressure currently in place begins a slow crawl to the southeast, it will allow some monsoonal moisture to flow into the state. And while we will still have heat to contend with over the next few days, there is a better chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Stay with the 24/7 Weather Center this week, and we'll keep our eyes on the potential cold front to affect the area by Thursday. And you won't want to miss tomorrow's blog...it will feature a complete recap on July 2005, as well as all the records we set here in Denver.

Have a great week!

July 30, 2005 -- A Preview Of August

August is similar to June and July to start, but we definitely notice summer starting to wind down by month's end. As we move through August, we generally see severe weather decrease and the days grow shorter. Temperatures also cool somewhat, with average highs falling from 88° on the 1st, down to 82° by the 31st.

By the end of August, we can see a nip in the air with the occasional cold front passing through. There has never been snowfall recorded in the Denver area in the month of August.

We generally see about 9 days topping 90° in the 8th month of the year, with thunderstorms on 8 days. The dominant wind direction is out of the south, with an average speed of 8 MPH.

Extremes for August are as follows...

Highest Temperature Recorded -- 105° on 8/08/1878
Lowest Temperature Recorded -- 40° on 8/26/1910 and previous dates
Warmest August On Record -- 1937 when the temperature averaged 76.8°
Coolest August On Record -- 1915 when the temperature averaged 66.5°
Wettest On Record -- 1979 when 5.85" of rain was recorded
Driest On Record -- 1924 when only 0.02" of rain was recorded

Check the blog tomorrow for a preview to what we can expect this August, as well as a look back to past years.

July 29, 2005 -- Wildland Fire Threat Continues

We have hot and dry weather in the forecast to start the weekend, and that's not a good combination to have when the fire danger is high. If you have outdoor plans please use extreme caution.

As the ridge of high pressue over Colorado slips to the east, it will allow moisture back into the area by later in the weekend, reintroducing a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

There were 163 new fires reported across the western United States yesterday, with four becoming large fires (one here in Colorado). The Commissary Fire is burning about 22 miles east of Gunnison.

Currently there are 17 "large" fires burning in the western states, which have burned a combined total of 83,017 acres.

Through yesterday, we've seen a total of 37,429 fires burn 4.33 million acres this fire season. Here are some previous year's statistics through July 28.

2004 - 47,032 fires, 5.41 million acres
2003 - 35,060 fires, 1.75 million acres
2002 - 52,278 fires, 3.94 million acres
2001 - 49,383 fires, 1.49 million acres
2000 - 59,664 fires, 3.23 million acres

The 10-year average by July 28 is to have seen 51,572 fires, burning 2.61 million acres.

So as you can tell, it's quite dry and volatile with this year having fewer fires than several of the past 5 years, but burning the second largest amount of land.

July 28, 2005 -- The Fort Collins Flood Of 1997

This time of year can bring thunderstorms that produce locally heavy rain, and we can find several examples in Denver's weather history. Most are not of the magnitude of the Fort Collins Flood on this date in 1997, but nonetheless, can still pose great danger to life and property.

A few examples follow...

1910 -- Over 2.00" in downtown Denver from afternoon storms
1966 -- Heavy rains caused flooding on Deer Creek in Littleton, injuring a child washed away from a car caught in the floodwaters
1982 -- Up to 2.50" of rain in just 30 minutes drenched areas just southwest of town
1984 -- Up to 1.25" of rain in just 45 minutes fell over Arvada
1985 -- Up to 1.30" of rain fell in just 30 minutes over Deckers
1997 -- Up to a foot of rain fell in the southwest part of town in a short amount of time. The Fort Collins Flood killed 5 people and injured 40 others as two mobile home parks were overtaken by flood waters. Extensive damage was done to the Colorado State University campus. Additional heavy rains fell in the foothills west of Denver, washing out some culverts in Pine and Conifer. Near Hudson and Fort Lupton on the eastern plains, 4 to 7 inches of rain washed out many county roads.
1999 -- Rainfall rates of up to 3.00" per hour fell in the area, causing a massive rock slide at Bakerville along I-70. It closed the interstate completely for 25 hours. Stapleton Airport recorded 1.56" of rain from the storms.

Other notable weather events on this date include a few tornadoes.

1974 -- Tornado just east of Buckley AFB
1996 -- Several weak tornadoes near Bennett, Barr Lake, and Arvada
1997 -- Weak tornado in Parker

On this date in 1989, lightning struck and killed two brothers in Arvada hanging laundry on a clothesline. Just last year, large hail fell in Thornton on this date.

July 27, 2005 -- July Has Set All Kinds Of Records

July 2005 will be not only remembered for widespread record heat, followed by a brief and potent cool down that brought some record lows...but also for an active Atlantic Basin in the tropics.

Not only did July bring the earliest and strongest category 4 storm in recorded history, but also the most named storms so early in the season. By July 24th there were 7 named tropical systems. The average date to have our 7th named storm is September 23rd! Nearly two months early this year!!!

Of course we all recall the record highs set across Colorado, with many places reaching into the low 100s day after day. Denver tied its all time record high of 105° during the heat wave.

Last night, places like Denver and Pueblo came within just a few degrees of setting a new record low, and Grand Junction did, bottoming out at a very comfy 55°! That beat the previous record of 56°, and is 51° cooler than the new all time record high of 106° set last week!

July 26, 2005 -- What Exactly Does "Chance" Of Rain Mean

Thunderstorms and thundershowers here in the west are often what meteorologists refer to as "hit and miss" or "garden variety."

So how do you put this into a forecast for the public, without saying "hit and miss?"

The answer is POP, which stands for probability of precipitation. POP is technically defined as the likelihood of occurrence of a measurable amount of liquid precipitation (or the water equivalent of frozen precipitation) falling during a specified period of time at any given point in the forecast area.

Measurable precipitation is defined as anything greater than a Trace (T) within the observation period, usually 12 hours.

Here is a listing of POPs, and how to translate...

SLIGHT CHANCE -- 10% (Areal Coverage = Isolated or Few)
SLIGHT CHANCE -- 20% (Areal Coverage = Widely Scattered)
CHANCE -- 30-50% (Areal Coverage = Scattered)
LIKELY -- 60-70% (Areal Coverage = Numerous)

You might ask where is 80-100%? Generally these are not used, except during weather events that are obvious. (i.e. a land-falling hurricane) When precipitation has a high probability of occurrence, you may also hear terms like "occasional" or "periods of" but these don't mean there will be continuous precipitation.

July 25, 2005 -- A Break For Your A/C, But It's Still July

A potent cold front is on the move toward Colorado, sitting along the Montana/Wyoming border this morning. It should make its way down into the area by tonight, bringing a really nice break from the record setting heat!

We're talking about highs in the 70s and potentially a widespread rainfall that could add up to half an inch in many rain gauges! The parched soils could really use this, as can the water supply.

It will be a fairly short-lived cool down, with highs rebounding back to the upper 80s to mid 90s by late week.

As of today, this is the warmest July on record, averaging 78.5°! It is also the warmest month in Denver's history!! 78.5° is more than 5° above normal for the month.

The warmest July we've had (and the warmest month in Denver's history) was back in 1934, where the temps averaged 77.8°. It was a hot year for most of the country with numerous locations setting records, and this July has challenged many of them. Chicago, Illinois, nearly broke its all time record high of 105° yesterday, which dates back to the hot year of 1934. The high was 102° at O'Hare Airport and 104° at Midway Airport.

Other triple digits from the midwest include St. Louis, Missouri, at 103° on Sunday. Osage Beach, Missouri, was a whopping 106°! And Hill City, Kansas, was a steamy 105°.

With the cool down over the next few days, it may be enough to jeopardize July 2005 ending as the warmest on record, but its likely we'll finish in the top 5.

In the precipitation department, currently we're the 3rd driest on record. With this cool and wet airmass moving our way, its possible we'll get enough precipitation to jeopardize ending in the top 10 driest. Which that is some good news!

Visit the weather discussion on our weather page for links to a few of the many resources we've developed to help you when the weather turns stormy, including the Front Range radar, State radar, Severe Weather Alerts, and FutureCast!

Have a great week ahead, and thanks for making the weather blog apart of your daily routine!

July 24, 2005 -- Tropics Remain Active

While much of the weather news this past week has focused on the heat gripping the nation, two new tropical systems formed in the Atlantic Basin.

Tropical Storm Franklin near the Bahamas is bringing high surf and muggy conditions to Florida, but a direct hit isn't in store. Franklin will move out to sea, just north of Bermuda, before becoming extra tropical over the cooler waters of the Atlantic.

In the western Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Storm Gert formed just off the Mexican coast, very near where Emily made landfall. Gert will move inland before gaining too much strength, but will be a rain maker for many areas soaked by Emily.

July 23, 2005 -- Weekend Weather Spells Relief

It's something we've all been waiting for, RELIEF!

The very stagnant weather pattern we've been under will shift over the next few days as high pressure breaks down and pushes east. We're talking 80s by the start of this coming work week!

While this is good news, there is a bit of bad news too. Due to the intense heat it's now extremely dry across most of the state. As moisture increases from the south and southwest, initially the storms we see will be high based. That means gusty winds and lightning, but little in the way of rain. Precipitable water values will increase however, especially into the day on Sunday. Some storms could locally drop an inch of rain!

Due to the very serious fire danger in place across Colorado, many counties have burn bans in effect and The National Weather Service has a Red Flag Warning posted until 9 PM tonight covering the mountains along and east of the divide, as well as the I-25 Urban Corridor.

July 22, 2005 -- Another Record Setter!

Denver hit 102° today and that was good for another record! It's our 4th day of 100s in a row and now our 2nd longest streak on record!

July 21, 2005 -- What's Causing This Heat?

Has it been a hot July or what? Not only is Colorado suffering from intense heat, with hot days and mild nights, but so is the entire southwest! Phoenix has been above normal since June with a string of triple digit heat, and so has Las Vegas. Multiple deaths have been blamed on the heat wave in those two cities.

I've had numerous emails and phone calls this week from viewers wanting to know one thing..."What's up with this heat? Is it El Nino or La Nina?"

The answer is no. It is simply a stubborn ridge of high pressure parked over the Four Corners region. A ridge of high pressure has sinking air beneath it, resulting in what we call in meteorology, compressional warming. This warming causes the humidity (dewpoint) to lower, resulting in very dry air. Dry air heats quickly and produces little in the way of clouds...therefore we get hot weather.

If that is a little too technical for you, refer to it as a big bubble of hot air trapped under the high pressure ridge.

One characteristic of dry air that is kind of neat is it can have what we call a large diurnal range in temperature. Dry air heats quickly with the sun, but cools quickly after it sets.

On Tuesday, Craig had a 57° difference between the morning low and afternoon high. On Wednesday, Limon saw a 50° swing from the morning low of 52° to the afternoon maximum of 102°!

So why does this high pressure ridge stay in place?

During the mid summer, winds aloft are very weak. The jet stream retreats far into Canada and leaves the mid-latitudes with light winds up at the jet stream level. Therefore, weather patterns can become stagnant until something strong enough comes down the pike to push things along.

So yes this is a serious matter, as a prolonged heatwave can be dangerous and deadly. It is drying out the vegetation across the west and making wildfires a very high risk, even in the non-mountainous regions. We saw an explosive fire in Elbert county just yesterday threaten several homes and animals.

The good news is its just a persistent weather pattern, not something like El Nino or La Nina that could threaten to keep the hot temperatures around for weeks and even months. There are even signs that this ridge of high pressure will push to the east, allowing a northwest flow into the area by early next week. Not to the say the hot weather will be over for 2005, remember, summer doesn't end until mid-September. But generally in Colorado, July is the hottest month, with more progressive upper-level patterns entering the picture by August.

Your 24/7 Weather Center has eyes on a cold front that will try and push through by Tuesday, bringing highs down to the 80s on the eastern plains. Right now, it's looking pretty good!

With the cooler weather and the high moving east, we should see what we call a "return flow" settle in, or moisture moving up from the south (remnants of Emily) on the backside of the high pressure's clockwise circulation. This will spell a bit more cloud-cover and some afternoon thunderstorms late Sunday, with better chances on Monday and Tuesday.

For now, please take it easy outdoors. Drink plenty of water, stay in the shade as much as possible, wear the sunscreen, and check on friends and family. Don't forget the pets, both big (horses, cows) and small (dogs, cats). They need water and shade too!

If you don't have air conditioning, keep the windows open for a breeze, but all shades and blinds closed to block out the sunlight. Visit public places like the shopping mall or library during the hottest part of the day.

Stay with 7NEWS, we'll keep you updated with all the latest news and weather!

July 20, 2005 -- July's Full Moon!

The moon will be 100% full during the overnight hours tonight, officially peaking around 5 AM in the morning.

July's Full Moon is known as The Full Buck Moon, when the antlers of buck deer emerge in coatings of velvety fur.

It is also known as The Full Thunder Moon due to the frequency of thunderstorms July often brings, and The Full Hay Moon.

The moon will be at perigee this evening, meaning its closet point to Earth on its orbit. This is approximately 221,928 miles away. The combination of perigee and Full Moon means very high ocean tides can be expected today.

July 19, 2005, 6:10 PM -- More Record Highs Fall Today!

July 2005 is on track to be the second warmest on record for Denver, with a second day in the 100s. We hit 101° out at Denver International Airport, breaking the record of 100° that has stood since the Dust Bowl year of 1934. We've been 90° or better on 16 of 19 days.

Other record highs today in Colorado include...

104 -- Pueblo (TIE)
97 -- Colorado Springs
92 -- Alamosa

Around the nation, the heat is affecting several of the western states. Temperatures in the mountains and deserts of California are among some of the hottest ever recorded, with Big Bear Lake reaching 94°! Death Valley has reached between 125° and 128° several days this month.

The forecast calls for us to climb into the triple digits again tomorrow, so make plans now on how you are going to stay cool. We're watching a cold front that could bring some cooler air by the start to next week. Keep your fingers crossed!

So just how common are 100° readings for Denver? Today was the 54th time in 134 years of recorded history that we hit century mark. See a complete listing of past 100° days below.

102 June 23, 1954
102 June 27, 1990
102 June 29, 1990
102 June 30, 1990
100 June 25, 1991
104 June 26, 1994
101 July 3, 1874
102 July 4, 1874
101 July 6, 1876
100 July 14, 1878
100 July 11, 1888
100 July 31, 1889
100 July 15, 1902
101 July 23, 1910
100 July 26, 1910
100 July 22, 1931
100 July 19, 1934
100 July 23, 1936
102 July 20, 1939
102 July 11, 1954
101 July 12, 1954
101 July 12, 1971
101 July 17, 1971
100 July 30, 1972
100 July 5, 1973
103 July 6, 1973
100 July 21, 1981
101 July 4, 1989
101 July 5, 1989
102 July 6, 1989
102 July 7, 1989
103 July 8, 1989
102 July 1, 1990
100 July 2, 1990
100 July 20, 1998
101 July 6, 2000
101 July 1, 2001
100 July 13, 2003
101 July 16, 2003
100 July 24, 2003
102 July 16, 2005
101 July 19, 2005
100 August 12, 1876
100 August 2, 1878
100 August 3, 1878
105 August 8, 1878 (WARMEST IN DENVER'S HISTORY)
100 August 1, 1901
100 August 1, 1902
100 August 1, 1938
100 August 10, 1962
100 August 14, 1962
100 August 8, 1969
100 August 6, 1980
100 August 16, 2002

For some tips on how to beat the heat, see the blog entry on July 14th below.

Thanks for visiting TheDenverChannel and watching 7NEWS! I hope you enjoy the daily blog. Have a great night and stay cool.

July 19, 2005 --Busy Hurricane Season!

Hurricane Emily made for the 5th named storm of the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and it's only mid-July! This is the busiest start to the season in recorded history!

The year with the most named storms was 1995, when 19 systems brought us to the letter "T"! Hurricane Tanya didn't affect the US Mainland, however. 1933 was actually the busiest year on record, with 21 storms, but we didn't start naming them until 1953.

1914 was the most quiet year, with no hurricanes and only 1 tropical storm noted. Two years since have recorded only 2 hurricanes.

In 1953, the first named Hurricane was Alice. We used all female names until 1979, when boy and girl names were alternated. Bob was the first male name used for a hurricane.

6 lists were then created and we alternate these now every 6 years. Names are taken away from the list when they do a notable amount of damage to life and property. A few names that have been retired include Andrew, Hugo, and Gilbert.

July 18, 2005 --CoCo RaHS Wants You!

There is an awesome group of weather observers in Colorado (and surrounding states), and they belong to a group called CoCo RaHS. (CoCo RaHS = Community Collaborative Rain and Hail Study)

This dynamic group of volunteers report rain, hail, and snow totals from their backyards. Even on days when no precipitation falls, many of the stations report in with a zero. The data maps in real time to state and county maps each day, and is archived for reference. It is really neat to log in after a storm passes the area, call up the Denver Metro map, and see the precipitation patterns.

If you want to learn more, just click this link below to visit their website.

CoCo RaHS Website

Enjoy this short break from the heat, it will be back in full force by tomorrow!

July 17, 2005 --Bring On The Cooler Air!

WHEW! After the record setting 102° high in Denver on Saturday, today will feel much better as highs will only be in the 85 to 92° range around the city. A strong cold front will bring cooler air to the region along with some gusty winds out of the north and northeast. A few thunderstorms may form with this change in the weather, so if you have outdoor plans, keep an eye to the sky today.

Denver wasn't the only new record high set on Saturday, check out these new record highs from around the region!

Death Valley, California -- 127° TIE
Needles, California -- 122°
Rapid City, South Dakota -- 109°
Page, Arizona -- 107°
Greybull, Wyoming -- 105°
Boise, Idaho -- 105°
Sheridan, Wyoming -- 104°
Casper, Wyoming -- 104°
Chadron, Nebraska -- 103°
Reno, Nevada -- 104°
Salt Lake City, Utah -- 103° TIE
Yuma, Colorado -- 102° TIE
Riverton, Wyoming -- 101°
Lander, Wyoming -- 100°
Rawlins, Wyoming -- 97°
Rock Springs, Wyoming -- 95°
Laramie, Wyoming -- 91°

Enjoy the cooler weather, we'll be back near triple digit heat in the Denver area Tuesday and Wednesday of next week!

July 16, 2005 --A Bit Of Heat Relief!

We could see some triple digit heat today before a cold front makes its way into the region Sunday and Monday. The coolest day will by far be Monday, and some showers and thunderstorms could crop up as a result of the frontal passage. The cool spell will be short-lived, with temps back into the 90s Tuesday.

All eyes are on Hurricane Emily as she churns toward Cancun, Mexico. The official forecasted track is to enter the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall in northern Mexico or southern Texas.

You might not think of hurricanes affecting Colorado, especially one in that part of the world. But indeed, Emily could spread some moisture up into the central Rockies if the path verifies. We'll keep an eye on it for you!

For now, enjoy this very hot day and stay cool and hydrated!

July 15, 2005 --Record Heat Grips The West!

Parts of the desert southwest have been in the 100s for several days now, and a few locations have set some new record highs.

The Palm Spring Airport reached 120° on Wednesday, setting a new record. Needles, California,hit a whopping 123°!

On Thursday, St. George, Utah, climbed to 115° to set a new record high. Though missing the record by a degree, Las Vegas, Nevada, topped out at 115° on Thursday, after only cooling to 86° overnight.

Death Valley might just take the cake for Thursday afternoon's warmest place in the nation, topping out at 125°!

Closer to home, we saw a few triple digits here in Colorado, with Grand Junction setting a new record at 105° Thursday afternoon.

Other 100s include...

Cortez -- 100°
Delta -- 101°
Fruita -- 105°
Rangely -- 103°
Battlement Mesa -- 103°
Montrose -- 100°
Pueblo -- 100°
Rifle -- 102°
Brighton -- 100°
Northglenn -- 100°
Crook -- 103°
Merino -- 105°
Akron -- 101°
Fort Collins -- 100°

Read yesterday's blog entry for some important tips on how to beat the heat!

July 14, 2005 -- How To Beat The Heat!

Today will likely top the 90° mark once again, making for 13 days this month! The afternoon high on July 4th was 87°, the only non-90° day. If this heat continues, July 2005 will likely make the top 10 warmest. Currently, we're tied for 8th place.

Denver has seen 21 days with highs at or above 90° this year, with an average year delivering about 33 days. We can see 90s up to the middle of September, so that number will likely climb. The record was 61 days in 2000.

So during this heat wave, it is critical that you remember some tips on how you can beat the heat.

Drink plenty of water and natural juices (avoid sodas, coffee, and alcohol)
Stay indoors during the most intense heat of the day if possible
Keep shades drawn and blinds closed
Keep lights off during the day
Don't use appliances like dishwashers, stoves, and washers or dryers during the warm part of the day
Take cool baths or showers
Wear loose fitted, light colored cotton clothing
Don't eat heavy meals
Don't let ANYONE sit in a hot car, for any amount of time, even with the windows cracked
Check on friends, family members, and neighbors
Keep fresh water for your pets, and if possible, keep them inside
Never leave pets in parked cars, even with the windows cracked

If you don't have air conditioning, keep your windows open (even though the blinds and shades are closed) to keep the air circulating. Use fans to aid this process if you own them. If possible, during the hottest part of the day, visit an air-conditioned facility, such as your local shopping mall.

We're crossing our fingers for a little relief come late Sunday. There is a cold front trying to make its way down from Canada with cooler air and a chance for thunderstorms.

July 13, 2005 -- The Southwest Monsoon!

When you hear the word monsoon, you likely think of flooding rains, such as the images we see from India when the rainy season arrives. However, the word monsoon has nothing to do with moisture.

Monsoon is derived from the Arabic word "mausim" which means season, or wind shift. A monsoon is defined as a seasonal, large-scale wind-shift across a region. Because this wind shift often brings moisture with it, both here in the USA and India, over time it has become known as the monsoon.

The Southwest Monsoon, sometimes called the Mexican Monsoon or North American Monsoon, usually occurs from mid July through the end of August. It has been documented to last until October during some years.

A large area of high pressure over the eastern Pacific Ocean migrates eastward, resulting in the upper level winds over the southwestern United States to flow from a southerly direction, as opposed to the predominant westerly direction. These southerly winds help pull moisture up from the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of California, Gulf of Mexico, and even as far away as the Caribbean. The moisture then interacts with the terrain of the southern and central Rockies, and daytime heating, to bring an almost daily dose of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

So how do we know when the monsoon has officially arrived? One "unofficial" rule of thumb is to check the daily dewpoint at Phoenix, Arizona. Once it reaches or exceeds 55° on three or more consecutive days, it is said that the monsoon has arrived.

Once the monsoon has arrived, we don't typically see a period of non-stop rains. But rather a cycle of "bursts" and "breaks" in precipitation.

The monsoon season does bring a deadly threat to the region, and that is flash flooding. Often, slow moving storms can drop copious amounts of rain in a short period of time. We've seen too many cases in our weather history where this combination has proven deadly.

When thunderstorms move in, no matter where you are, keep and eye to the sky and stay tuned to a local source for weather information.

We'd like to be that local source for you! The 24/7 Weather Center has several tools for you to use when following the latest weather, both here on TheDenverChannel, on 7NEWS, through our radio partners, and on the 24/7 Weather Line.

So far there are no signs of the monsoon, but we'll keep watching!

Have a great day, and stay cool as the mid-summer heat remains in place over Colorado.

July 12, 2005 -- Another Hot Stretch Ahead!

We've got another extended period of heat to contend with across Colorado, with temperatures in the 90s through the coming weekend and little in the way of precipitation forecasted.

The long-term computer models do hint at a pretty decent cool down early next week with a chance for rain. As you know, a lot can happen between now and then, but we'll keep you updated with all the latest from the 24/7 Weather Center.

All eyes, believe it or not, are once again on the tropics as Tropical Storm Emily churns toward the eastern Caribbean, about 2300 miles from Miami. It is forecast to become a hurricane and threaten the southeast once again.

We've seen 5 named storms this 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and we aren't even to the peak, which typically happens from late August until mid-September. This definitely sets a record in the weather books.

July 11, 2005 -- 24/7 Weather Center's Digital Album!

We love to get your digital pictures, be it during an afternoon thunderstorm or while on your evening hike.

When active weather is happening, your pictures help us to verify things we might be seeing on satellite or radar. Things like funnel clouds, street flooding, or hail make great photo opportunities. (if you can safely capture the image)

Other great pictures can include fall color as the leaves begin to change, interesting clouds, sunrise and sunset pictures, and mountain scenes.

You can upload pictures yourself, right to TheDenverChannel, by going to our weather homepage. In the blog section you will see a link to "upload digital pictures." You are also welcome to share them with the 24/7 Weather Center Team of meteorologists via email. Just send them to weather@thedenverchannel.com!

Here are a few picture taking tips to capture great weather...

In rainy and dark conditions, compensate by setting your exposure to +0.5 or +1.0
Textured items, such as a weathered fence, as well as flowers...often photograph best on an overcast day
Got reflections? Sometimes a calm, cool, rainy day can best show the reflections of fall color on the trees just across from a lake
Under exposing a picture tends to bring out the dramatic colors
For lightning, try a shutter speed of around 8 seconds
For hail, place an object in the shot to show the size comparison, such as a coin or tennis ball
Find some contrast. If you have a beautiful cloud shot, find something to contrast it with, such as surrounding terrain or trees. A small object, like powerlines often will not bring the desired effect.

Have fun taking pictures and thanks in advance for sharing them with us! Who knows, we may be able to get your next storm picture on our 5,6, or 10 PM news!!!

July 10, 2005 -- Fire Danger Continues!

You've heard the saying, "The Beat Goes On"...that is true for Colorado, except substitute heat for beat!

It looks like we'll stay at the 90° mark for the extended period, with lower 90s expected in the Denver area instead of mid to upper 90s.

Despite the very wet spring we had, many places are once again dry. Some locations are as dry as the summer of 2002 when Colorado was devistated by numerous fires, including the Hayman.

Our friends along the central Gulf Coast will take a direct hit from very dangerous Hurricane Dennis this afternoon. Flooding rains, high winds, and inland tornadoes will keep meteorolgists very busy during the next 24 hours.

July 9, 2005 -- Another Toasty Day In Store!

Whew...was it ever a hot one across Colorado on Friday! Even the high country was warm with just about every location below 9,000 feet at 80 degrees or higher. Leadville topped out at a refreshing 74° after starting out the day at 39°!!!

Here are some of the toasty high temperatures recorded on Friday around the state...

Colorado Springs -- 93°
Lamar -- 97°
Pueblo -- 99°
Aspen -- 86°
Eagle -- 90°
Grand Junction -- 98°
Gateway -- 97°
Fruita -- 100°
Denver -- 97°
Greeley -- 100°
Akron -- 97°
Grand Lake -- 81°

Today looks to be another hot one, with an increased fire danger threat due to the heat, low humidity, and isolated dry thunderstorms that may form by late afternoon.

Please keep cool, drink plenty of water, check on the elderly and pets, and help prevent forest fires if you have plans in the high country.

Remember, hot weather and light winds...combined with mostly clear skies will bring about increased ozone levels at the surface. This will irritate those sensative to poor air quality. The Front Range is under an OZONE ACTION ALERT DAY until 4 PM this afternoon, and that could be extended into Sunday. For more information on the local air quality, click back to the weather page and view the story listed under weather headlines.

Have a safe and cool weekend, please keep it here on TheDenverChannel and watch 7NEWS for all the latest in weather and news information.

July 8, 2005 -- Fire Season Underway In The West!

At this time, there are twenty-one major fires burning in the western United States. Alaska, Washington, California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Texas are affected.

A fire is considered major, or a large incident, when 100 or more acres are burning in timber, and 300 or more acres in grass/sage. If it is a nonstructure fire and a non prescribed fire, then it's classified a wildland fire.

Here in Colorado, we're dealing with one major fire near the town of Wetmore. That is just north of Highway 96, west of Pueblo, on the east side of the Wet Mountains.

More information is available right here on TheDenverChannel under "Latest Headlines." As of this morning, the Mason Fire was at 200 acres and spreading. The cause of the fire was lightning.

West of Grand Junction, the Bitter Creek fire burning in Utah has grown to nearly 1000 acres. Sadly, this is a human caused wildland fire.

With this hot and dry span of weather in the forecast, we need to be extremely cautious when out in the high country and grasslands as fire danger increases. Most of Colorado is now in the high category, with southwest Colorado under extreme fire danger conditions.

July 7, 2005 -- The Heat Is On!

You might want to plan an escape to the high country this weekend as Mother Nature turns up the thermostat across much of the region.

Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90s for the Denver area now through the weekend, with overnight lows around 60. Some portions of the eastern plains may even reach into the upper 90s at times.

For the high country, it will be warm with highs in the 70s and lower 80s at most locations.

As for precipitation, a dry spell is in the works with just a few scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms about the state each day. This means two things...

As you make those outdoor plans, recall the safety rules for storms, especially lightning, just in case a storm threatens your area
Think of fire danger and be extra cautious with campfires, matches, cigarettes, and any leftover fireworks from the 4th of July

When temperatures get into the upper 80s and 90s and winds are light, we must think about Summer Ground-Level Ozone in the 7-county Denver Metro, Fort Collins, Greeley, and Colorado Springs areas. Please take time to check out more information on summertime ozone, and consider taking the voluntary actions suggested to reduce ozone levels. Just follow the link below for this information.

Front Range Air Quality Information

If you have interests in the Gulf Coast over the coming weekend, or have friends, loved ones, or property down that way...keep an eye on Hurricane Dennis over the next few days. This hurricane is gaining strength and poses a threat to the region. We have a great Tropical Satellite and Radar map in the map room of TheDenverChannel's weather page, as well as Atlantic Basin views. Follow the link below, and find over 80 additional maps in the pull down menu once you get to the Tropical Satellite and Radar. This menu also includes FutureCast maps for Colorado over the next 36 hours!

Tropical Satellite/Radar

Have a great day, thanks so much for watching 7NEWS, reading the blog, and visiting TheDenverChannel!

July 6, 2005 -- Severe Storms Spare Denver On Tuesday!

Powerful storms pounded portions of the eastern plains on Tuesday, with up to softball sized hail in northeastern Weld county, causing considerable damage, breaking windows, and stripping trees bare. In some areas, hail ranging from penny to softball size in diameter fell for 30 minutes!

A large swath of hail fell from near Westplains to extreme northwest Washington county. Several wheat fields were flattened by the hail, with considerable damage to some structures. One report came in with golf ball sized hail that lasted 18 minutes northeast of Briggsdale. A very powerful updraft feeding that supercell thunderstorm helped to produce the long duration of hail.

Other very strong storms struck from near Pueblo over to La Junta and Lamar. Another line pressed from near Limon out to Burlington. Many of these areas also saw large hail fall on Tuesday.

More storms are in the forecast today, and some may become severe. Denver will be on the edge of the action once again, with some storms possible even here in town. A hot and drier trend will settle into the central Rockies through the weekend.

Taking a quick look at the tropics, Cindy will weaken today after moving inland over the central Gulf Coast, very near New Orleans. Then, all eyes will turn to Dennis as he churns northwestward and gains strength. Interests in the Gulf Coastal areas of the United States will definitely want to keep an eye on this system over the next few days.

July 5, 2005 -- Activity In The Tropics!

Tropical Storm Cindy formed in the Gulf of Mexico overnight and has prompted portions of the Louisiana coastline to be placed under a Tropical Storm Warning. Watches are posted for the Mississippi, Alabama, and extreme western Florida coastlines. It is expected to make landfall sometime Wednesday over southeast Louisiana.

In the southeast Caribbean, another tropical depression has formed and is expected to quickly intensify into a Tropical Storm. Some forecast models show this growing to hurricane status by the weekend, located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday.

If you have any travel plans to the Gulf Coast in the next 3-5 days, you might want to just pay a little extra attention to the weather forecasts so you can plan accordingly.

We offer satellite and radar maps for many areas of the United States, including the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Basin, in the maps section of TheDenverChannel's weather page. You can find a link right under the 7-Day forecast.

Hurricane season began in the Atlantic Basin on June 1 and will last until the end of November. The peak for storm activity happens from late August into mid-September each year.

In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Dora is spinning right off the western coast of Mexico, but is expected to move out to sea this week without making a direct landfall.

July 4, 2005 -- Another Round Of Storms!

Happy Independence Day!

We're expecting another round of severe weather this afternoon, much like yesterday. Coverage could be a little more widespread today as some lower-level moisture is working its way into the Front Range on southeast winds.

The storms will be fairly short lived, and should start clearing out by sunset, except for on the far eastern plains of Colorado.

Storms will produce deadly cloud-to-ground lightning, very gusty winds, hail, and brief heavy rain. A tornado or two can't be ruled out. We saw a lightning strike on Sunday up at Boyd Lake that hit a swimmer, so when the skies turn dark and you can hear thunder, head for shelter.

Keep it here with 7NEWS and we'll bring you all the latest in weather coverage.

July 3, 2005 -- Fire Weather Concerns!

We were fortunate to have a long spell of cool and wet weather this year in Colorado, but now, things are rapidly drying out with the daytime highs climbing into the 80s and 90s daily for many areas.

Fire danger is becoming an increasing concern in Colorado, and with the holiday weekend in progress, we need to be extremely careful with fireworks, campfires, and discarding cigarettes or matches.

About 50% of the state is still just in the moderate category for fire danger, but there are pockets of high and very high now in western Colorado and the central mountains.

One characteristic of Colorado is daytime thunderstorms forming over the high country and pulling eastward in the late afternoon. With our dry climate, these storms are often what we call "high based." This means they form in the mid levels of the atmosphere, but as the rain falls into the dry air in place at the surface, it evaporates before reaching the ground. That leaves us with lightning and gusty winds most of the time, with very little in the way of rain. Of course this type of "dry" thunderstorm is not good when fire dangers are high.

So play it safe out there this weekend and for the rest of this year's fire season. Stay with 7NEWS for all the latest weather and fire danger information.

Slightly cooler and more moist air will move into Colorado to round out this holiday weekend.

July 2, 2005 -- Holiday Forecast Tools!

Your holiday weekend forecast calls for warm to hot across much of the region, with 80s and 90s at most all locations. To find some 70s you'll need to head up into the high country near timberline.

It's another Ozone Action Alert Day in the Front Range, with the advisory in place until 4 PM today. Based on ground-level ozone measurements taken today by the Regional Air Quality Council, the advisory will either be extended into Sunday or cancelled. Ozone forms at the ground-level under hot temperatures, clear to mostly clear skies, and light winds. For more information, including what you can do to prevent ground-level ozone, click the story below.

Front Range Air Quality Information

There is a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day this 4th of July weekend. If you have outdoor plans and are curious where the storms may fire, be sure to consult FutureCast, our exclusive weather model ran from the 24/7 Weather Center. It will help you pinpoint the most likely areas for storm development.

FutureCast Model

If warnings are needed or watches get posted, you can get graphically displayed information right here on TheDenverChannel.

24/7 Weather Alerts

Don't forget Doppler Radar for the state, Nexrad for the Front Range, and the full selection of maps (35 total) that are dedicated to Colorado Weather. We have over 50 maps for national weather. You'll find all these in the pull down menu of our map section.

24/7 Map Room

Be sure and wear your sunscreen this weekend when out enjoying yourself at the pool, lake, park, or the Cherry Creek Arts Festival. Drink plenty of water and keep an eye to the sky for any afternoon thunderstorms that may form.

Have a safe weekend, and don't forget to stay with 7NEWS and TheDenverChannel for all the latest.

July 1, 2005 -- Ozone Action Day Alert!

The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, and the Regional Air Quality Council...have issued an OZONE ACTION DAY ALERT for the seven-county Denver Metro Area, Colorado Springs, Fort Collins, and Greeley This alert remains in effect until 4 PM today.

Hot temperatures, clear to mostly sunny skies, and light winds all combine to form high levels of ozone at the ground level under the afternoon sun.

In addition, smoke drifting into Colorado from forest fires in surrounding states, as well as a little smoke from the Waterton Canyon fire Tuesday, may increase the background haze, especially over the southern third of Colorado.

For more information, as well as voluntary actions you can take to help reduce and prevent ozone, click the link below.

Front Range Air Quality Information

Have a great Friday, and a safe holiday weekend! Stay with 7NEWS for all your weather needs. We have local radars, FutureCast, and more right here on TheDenverChannel.

Please feel free to come out to the Cherry Creek Arts Festival, and visit our interactive 24/7 Weather Center booth! 7NEWS is a proud sponsor of this family event.