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Dry Weather Brings Worries About Drought, Fire Danger

Forecast For Winter Looks Bleak

UPDATED: 10:10 a.m. MDT October 22, 2003

The current warm, sunny weather we've all been experiencing is great, but it's been weeks since the state has had any real rain and that has left it bone-dry.

fire danger map from the National Interagency Fire Center

Nearly three quarters of the state is under very high fire danger with some areas under extreme fire danger, according to the U.S. Forest Service.

Fire managers are out looking for fuel in the tinder-dry forests so that they can plan more prescribed burns. Their goal is to prevent another fire like last summer's Hayman Fire.

A wet spring, record fall heat and the possibility of Chinook winds combine to create the perfect environment for wildfires, fire officials said.

"Not only have we lost a lot of firefighters because the season ended, now we have a problem -- high winds, if it happens in the fall. Mix that with the high temperatures, dry vegetation on the ground, and it could be a very volatile time of year," said fire management officer Gary Shaffer.


Fire officials say tinder-dry conditions make it tough to go forward with prescribed burns.

Fortunately, in the fall, lightning isn't a big factor with forest fires. However, since people are always a factor, fire officials are warning people not to toss their cigarettes out the window and not to start any unapproved campfires.

The U.S. Forest Service said that it will also be doing more prescribed burns, so if you see smoke, don't immediately call 911 unless you're sure it's a wildfire.

"We don't want to get something going in the forest that we couldn't control so we don't burn when the conditions are this dry," said Boulder Fire Department's Justin Dombrowski.

The Forest Service said that it lets people know when and where they're doing prescribed burns 48 hours in advance via the media and the reverse 911 system. But they say weather changes often cause last-minute cancellations.

Headed For Severe Drought?

State officials are also worried that the dry weather may push Colorado back into a drought. Water use is up nearly 20 percent over normal and there has been very little precipitation in the last six weeks.

"We're right back on the dry edge again," said Nolan Doesken, assistant state climatologist. "And the foreseeable forecast calls for much the same."

Denver normally would have about 1.5 inches of precipitation over these past weeks in September and October but it's had only .01 inches of moisture, according to the National Weather Service.

"We're fooling ourselves if we think we're out of this drought," said Jack Byers, deputy state engineer at the Colorado Division of Water Resources. "We need to get our guard back up. I would preach caution."

Forecasts for the precipitation expected during the coming winter range from near normal to below normal. And even if the snowpack hits average this winter, after four years of below-average moisture that still will leave concerns about drought.

But water officials aren't panicking yet.

They said reservoir levels are at 77 percent of capacity, which is below the normal 87 percent but well ahead of last year's 50 percent mark. State officials said if this trend continues, expect severe water restrictions next summer.

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