Wow! That's all I could say when I saw the tornado progs! If you were hesitant about today before that came out, you're definately eyeing it now if you can make it in half a day. Omaha, our initial target, sits 519 miles from Brighton which will put us at about 7 hours. My fantasy is to be in Omaha before 3pm CDT, which with a 6am MDT departure, should be no problem accounting for a gas stop in between. Verne and Michael stayed out after chasing today, so we'll probably meet up with them at some point tomorrow. They're off I-29 near Blair, Nebraska, so my advice to them is to sit tight. We'll come to them.

Very excited to see some hope for tomorrow in what was looking to be an iffy day. Boundries oughta play an interesting role tomorrow for us, and I think as long as we get far enough east in time, we should be good. The plan of attack, get as far east as possible, then go north. We should do fine.

I'll update when I can tomorrow as I am going to set a 5am wake-up call and get on the road as soon as I can after that. I've got most of my gear set to go. Very stoked right now. By the way, this is my very FIRST September chase ever! Lets ring it up right!

Doing some nowcasting for Verne as he should have just crossed into Nebraska on the southern storm which has just crossed the state line. The storms near Holdrege look very impressive at this time with velocity scans showing a nice couplet to compliment the reflectivity hook. Hail up to 2 inches being reported near Holdrege from that storm. Anxious to hear Verne's report from today.

Chasing tomorrow looks to be a go. The gang has been coordinated with and we're looking at a departure of 6am from Brighton. We'll shoot out I-80 as planned and make our adjustments on the road. I'm still leaning at Southeastern Nebraska at this time as I think we'll have better chances ahead of the dryline before the front plows through. We'll see how things look tonight and most certainly in the morning.

I head off campus in 30 minutes to begin my closing shift at the pizza joint. I'll be able to pull the text products from SPC on my cell phone before I get home, which should allow me to get home and go straight to bed before my 5:15am wake-up call.

Updates will be sparce through tomorrow except a text message sent to my blog, so stay tuned as I'll update as frequently as I can. Very excited to get out again and look forward to whatever comes up! Should be stormy to say the least!

Plans are in their final stages for tomorrow's marathon chase. As of now, I have Jon V, Allison, and Tom coming along with me. I've talked to everyone and we're all a go as of now.

There are two areas to watch for tomorrow. The first is the better of the two up north. The second is along a dryline which is forecasted to setup from north to south in Eastern Nebraska, Eastern Kansas, and southward into Oklahoma.

The northern target is my initial play. With a departure out of Brighton at 6:00am, we could feasbly make Sioux City, IA by 3pm CDT. If storms haven't fired yet, we could find ourselves in decent position. Better dynamics and shear rest up there. The front is in the vicinity, and will need to remain behind us, otherwise we'll be sitting in a fast moving squall line with little hope. This area is also closer to the low which will keep surface winds coming out of a favorable direction. The WRF at 0z Sun has 80 and 90kts of winds screaming out of the SW over Central Nebraska into NW Iowa and Southern Minnesota. Better difluence is just south of this over Eastern Nebraska, Southern Iowa, and Northeast Kansas. The 250mb jet max is centered over Northern Nebraska and Southeast South Dakota, so the area of concern sits in the right entrance quad of this jet. Closer to the surface, the WRF is hinting at TDs near 70 which I think is way overdone. Currently, TDs are in the 50s with 60s over Southern Kansas and points south. I'm not sure all of that will advect into our target area by tomorrow afternoon. I think mid 60s would be a reach, but definately a safer bet than lower 70s.

On the other hand, the GFS continues to slow this system down. The previous runs had the 500mb low sitting over Central North Dakota at 0z Sunday. The latest runs have it backed even further west in extreme Western North Dakota. This obviously pulls our target area back to the west and closer to home for us. The bulk of the precip being shown on the GFS is sitting in extreme southeastern South Dakota and extreme northeastern Nebraska. However, CAPE values look much better in Southern Nebraska as opposed to the northern areas as the GFS is progging nearly 2500J/kg along the KS/NE border and only 1500J/kg in SE South Dakota.

This is a tough call... you know there's going to be a squall line along the front, which is why areas in Southern Nebraska and Northern Kansas are being eyeballed; while the dynamics are a bit weaker there, the chances for storm isolation look much better, and of course with that, tornado chances also improve a bit. Storm motions are also a concern as models have them progged as high as 40kts. The biggest concern is the time frame heading out; can we be where we need to be in time? We can spend all night running around as we have most of Sunday to get home, but if we're going to drive all day Saturday to fall short, that'll all but kill any reason to go out.

I must admit to liking the GFS's slowing of the system. Even if there's a northly trek in our journey tomorrow, areas west trim off valueable time for us.

With all that said, our plans are to be on the road from Brighton tomorrow morning at 6am and we'll just haul out I-80 towards the Lincoln/Omaha area and make a quick evaluation from there to determine what warrents the next move. The upside to a setup like this is that there will be storms to play in, regardless whether they're lined together or isolated. Add to that cheaper gas prices being split four ways makes for a reasonably cheap trip. I'll probably post a quick update before I leave campus later this afternoon.

I got the green light from my second job to take off Saturdya night in the case I do go chasing this weekend. Right now, I'd say its sitting about 80%. There's more than enough uncertainty with the way the models are playing all this out to make you wonder if it'll snow in Kansas while tornadoes are on the ground. The time off won't come free as I agreed to save my manager from an open to close by closing up shop Friday night. That occurs at midnight which will get me home around 1am. I'll sleep fast and be up no later than 5am to prepare the van and meet up with my chasing partners, whom I'll be bribing for some drive time while I try and squeeze a dream or two out from the road. It'll undoubtly be the last chase trip of the year for me, and will end as crazy as the season began in terms of marathons. I should eclipse 18,000 miles for the season upon our return.

I'll do a lengthy analysis in the morning and will probably post again midday with the final word and plans. I'm very excited about getting out. One last chance to see friends and get in a bit of road time. Hopefully we can salavage something out of 2000-sux.

A much needed update with the weekend looking to be interesting...

Models began showing signs of a beautiful system with a classic divergent pattern back on Monday and I've been sititng on it since. With each passing day, the models have kicked this system out a bit further north and east. The ETA which pulled this system in for the first time in recent runs, has it way up in Minn while the GFS has the area of concern over Northeast Kansas and Southeast Nebraska.

I've set plans in motion to clear my Saturday with an anticipated early departure before sunrise Saturday morning. Assuming all the details fall into place, I'll be pulling a monster work day Friday starting at 6:30am and going through almost 1am. With a few hours of sleep, I'll hit the road with nearly appointed Colorado Spotter Jon Van de Grift, his girlfriend, Allison, and Tom Dulong. So yes, White Lightning is filled for this trip already. The trigger has yet to be pulled, and I imagine with the models now starting to diverge as much as the 500mb charts on this thing, it'll probably be a Friday afternoon decision. I should find out my working fate tomorrow which will make or break the chasing decision. I get locked into my work arrangements regardless, so at the worst, I get a full weekend off.

So with that, keeping my fingers crossed for this weekend in hopes that something works out for us. Otherwise, I'll just be hoping the Skins make another helping of Texas Toast against the Cowboys on Sunday! Ciao!

For you lawn waterers out there (and you know who you are), some interesting trivia which came out of the National Weather Service in Ft. Worth, TX this afternoon. I thought it would be of some use here!

1 CU FT OF WATER IS 7.48 GAL... SO ONE INCH OF WATER OVER 12 SQ FT IS 7.48 GALLONS. TO COVER A SMALL YARD... 1200 SQ FT...WITH ONE INCH OF WATER IS 748 GALLONS OR 100 CU FT OF WATER. MY YARD IS ROUGHLY 7200 SQ FT...OR 6 TIMES THE USAGE IN THE EXAMPLE. TO DUPLICATE A ONE INCH RAINFALL...4488 GALLONS IS USED.

Again, this was from the forecast discussion out of Ft. Worth this afternoon. Thought it would make for good trivia to pass along. Imagine yesterday's storms which dumped THREE inches of rain over a more widespread area. Try and comprehend how many gallons of water fell out of that storm!

Have a wonderful weekend!

An interesting day setting up for this first day of August in which we could be talking landspouts. Deep moisture finally made its way into the area after yesterday's frontal passage. Good shear and instability should also be present to allow for storm development early this afternoon. Hail is a possibility, but with the anticipated development of a DCVZ setting up, the area along that convergence could also be condusive for landspouts. Models indicating the potential for 60s to get as far west as the I-25 corridor with upper 50s to near 60 TDs all across the Eastern Plains. Post-frontal upslope at the surface should aid in storm development along the foothills and mountains early in the day beore storms move onto the Plains later in the afternoon. I would anticipate the first warnings coming out between 2pm and 3pm for areas along the Palmer Ridge (Elbert, Douglas, and Lincoln Counties) as well as areas along the convergence zone (Adams, Arapahoe, and Southern Weld Counties). The concern for me at the moment sits with the cloud cover which is currently draped over the area. Visible sat at this hour shows the area pretty socked in. Those clouds will need to clear in order to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s, otherwise we can expect a rather stratto-type day with little in terms of severe weather.

Unfortunately, I was unable to get out of my evening shift tonight due to no one to cover me. With that, I will be unable to get out for this afternoon's venture. Models are hinting at storms developing (with better tornado chances) along and north of U.S. Hwy 18 in Wyoming, then congealing as they move south. That kind of target may have been a bit too far to reach with the time I could've gotten out anyway. Had I the day free, I would probably head for an anrea between Wheatland (169 mi from DEN) and Douglas (227mi from DEN), probably more inclined for an area along Hwy 18 (Lost Springs, Manville, Lusk) and points eastward.

SPC's graphics seem to be showing a trend of tornado/hail potential being further north coinsiding with earlier development, then as the storms merge, turn into more of a wind threat which is shown in the 30% further south towards Nebraska.

My best bet for today is going to fall after dark where I may try and get on some storms if they stay within the Interstate Triangle. Lightning is going to be my hope if that's the case as I'll be off shortly before sunset.

With the passing of a front comes not only heat relief, but the chance for severe weather and what may be the first real chance to chase since June. SPC and local NWS offices are touching on tomorrow as a chance for severe weather with possible tornadoes in Eastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska. I'm looking at this cautiously as the middle of the week presents work issues which I need to work around in order to go. Jon V and I have discussed plans for tomorrow and will finalize them in the morning if I get clear of my evening shift tomorrow. With the uncertainties that exist, it'll be last minute. Both Jon and I have to remain on campus til after noon, so with luck, we could get out as late as 1pm and hopefully allow us enough time to get into position for the early tornado chances. Forecasts are indicating these storms will congeal into a mass and move into Northeast Colorado and Northwest Kansas through the evening, thus giving way to the usual nighttime barrage of wind, hail, flooding, and lightning.

Will worry about getting the time cleared before diving into the forecasts for tomorrow. If I can get lucky, I'll try and get on stand-by for my shift so if things aren't looking promising, I can still work. Otherwise it'll just be nice to get out again.

Severe weather fired last night along the Front Range and parts of the Eastern Plains. Storms which fired near Strausburg briefly held tornado warnings when a boundry collided with the storms which were already rooted on another boundry. No reports of tornadoes came from either storm as the warnings were issued based upon radar analysis. The storms held severe warnings for quite some time and were even flash flood warned when exit 354 west of Limon took on four feet of water from the storms. Had I not needed to be up at 6:30 this morning, I would've been more inclined to get out there and check them out. I figured the tornado warned cells weren't going to produce, but the late evening storms lasted well after dark and probably would've provided some killer lightning shots. Not to mention 4 feet of water at the 354 exit would've made for good sights had there been some light to illuminate it all.

Heat returns for the next couple of days before a decent change moves in cooling us down and wetting us up again. A monsoonal pattern is once again suppose to grace us for a few days which will not only aid with the cooler temps, but precip and storm chances. I would imagine a similar series of days like the first week in July where slow-moving storms create more flooding concerns rather than severe weather. None-the-less, its a pattern change I am really looking forward to.

With storm chasing season winding down and the heat taking hold with a vengence again, I thought I'd open up the floor to all you blog followers.. I'm curious as to your thoughts on the blog here at Channel 7. What did you like, not like? What would you like to see in the future? Do you have any chasing-related questions? Ask away, I'd like to know! And yes, I know right off the bat we all would've liked to have seen better weather! That's a bit out of my hands, unfortunately! With that, I'd like some feedback on what you thought in our first season blogging for you guys! Feel free to email me with your questions and comments at the email address below.

tonys7blog@tornadoeskick.com

I can't promise replies to every question I get, and I may post blanket answers here in the blog if I get a lot of the same questions. But please, shoot them off!

We may not be through yet, the rest of the summer still holds some storm potential, as well as our mini-season in the fall. So this isn't the end, but the slow period.

Stay tuned!

Summer returns with a vengance as temps back in the 90s to near 100 came quickly on the heals of last week's cool and wet pattern. Looks like this hot pattern will hold in the area through at least next week with isolate chances for storms at best. I know I speak for several people when I say I would love a repeat of Monday's lightning storm.

Yesterday, several damaging tornado were reported back in my homestate in and around Dayton; less than 100 miles from my hometown of Circleville. I received several emails in regards to these tornadoes as one hit the town of Centerville, just to the southeast of Dayton. To clarify here, I lived in Circleville, not Centerville, but I would imagine there isn't much difference between the two towns. None-the-less, my Roundtown did escape another episode in yesterday's event, so nothing to worry about on that front.

The monsoon shoved out its grand prize tonight with a freak storm which rolled in from Boulder and into Northwest Denver. My late start probably prevented me from shooting 200 digital photos tonight, but out of the 130 plus I did shoot, I nabbed some great shots, including an INCREDIBLE shot which ranks in my top 5 all-time. I'll update my website with the log update tomorrow, but I have posted the pics and the log here.

Yesterday ended Denver's storm-streak at three as no significant storms made it off the mountains and onto the Plains. Colorado Springs had some storms yesterday, but that's about as close as the biggest stuff got. Our pattern has changed a bit which has lead to the decrease of storm coverage. Tuesday's Wheat Ridge storm would've likely been nothing more than what we had last night had it not been for that outflow boundry which trucked in. We were missing such a trigger last night and thus we stayed quiet. A drier pattern has been in the models for several days now, but when that's suppose to occur continues to move back in time. We could still expect slow moving storms through the weekend before this pattern does move out from the area. I imagine today to be a repeat of yesterday with little if any storms over the Urban Corridor. Will keep keeping tabs on tomorrow and Saturday as well as this pattern seems to be coming to an end.

THREE-IN-A-ROW! First time in my chasing history I've chased storms in the Denver area three days in a row. Today's storm came late after I had packed it in for the night. Storms moving in from Wyoming kicked an outflow boundry up against the foothills and sparked a dumper over western portions of the Metro area and happily closer to home for me. My lady and I headed out from Lakewood and intercepted the storm along I-70 at Kipling where I documented more flooding in the Metro area. About a foot of water covered Kipling at I-70 after over an inch of rain fell within 45 minutes. The biggest event of the night came on our way to the flooding when a lightning bolt dropped in between some trees and picked off a transformer less than 10 feet from the van. A shower of orange and blue sparks littered the road as the transformed blew up overhead. It was incredible! Unfortunately, I didn't have video running at the time, but fortunately Dania can testify as both her and my hands were tingling from the close encounter. Anywoo, I posted the log and you can view it here. More storms expected tomorrow, but I will be at work tomorrow, so my odds of going four-in-a-row are going to rely on a storm taking on the Southwest Metro area while I'm driving pies. So with that, I'm going to retire for the evening to the sound of fireworks. Happy 4th all!

Play it again, Sam! Day 2 of Denver's monsoon season played out again in just about the same areas. Today's event was more widespread than Sunday's, but not as intense where I was. Weekday traffic was light due to tomorrow's holiday, but still presented problems and limited my travel into areas where most of the bigger issues were occuring. Traffic on I-25 south out of Denver was at a crawl due to the flooding near Castle Rock. Also reports that the Denver Lightrail System was shut down due to flooding issues near Downtown. I stuck around the areas from near Lone Tree and north along Parker Road to I-225 in Aurora. Upwards of 3 inches of rain fell within the two hour period. Most of the flooding I observed was very minor, including some road ponding, flooded drainage areas, and a new development in which the main road was completely submerged. You can view the chasing log and its pictures here.

Will go for three-in-a-row tomorrow as another round of monsoonal storms is expected to move across the Front Range. With the holiday, traffic should be light across the city which should allow for a bit more flexibility in getting around and hopefully give me better chances to get into the better areas. Will check the forecasts tomorrow morning to finalize the details. Will likely head off as storms initiate from the Front Range.

I completed the chasing log from Sunday and have it up and ready to check out. Today's chances remain about the same; weak shear will limit hail potential today, so heavy rains with storms will be the biggest threat. I'm on campus til noon and may stick it out here til storms start to fire before venturing out. With today being a Monday, traffic may be a bit more of a concern today as opposed to yesterday, but seeing as we're in an unofficial four-day weekend with the 4th being tomorrow, I should get lucky for Monday traffic. Will keep you posted should I head out.

Day 2 of the weekend had much better results storm-wise, and the 132 miles I added to my chasing total for the year will put me just shy of 30 miles of the 17,000 mile mark for this season. Storms fired further east than I thought today as I left my place in Lakewood shortly around 4:30 and headed south and east towards the Castle Rock area to get under some severe-warned/flash flood warned cells. Using my Sprint PCS phone for data, I had NWS radar updating constantly from the road. I elected to return to the Denver area where I met with Jon Van de Grift in Parker and he jumped in with me after a close lightning strike set my butt on fire. The bolt was so close, that I felt the electricity in my body as my left arm got real hot. The bolt hit a nearby structure less than 1000 feet away and sent me nearly diving head-first into my van. Once we left Parker, we headed into Southeast Denver where we observed some urban flooding along University Blvd. We stopped to film passing cars before darting onto E-470 to check out some nearby creeks. We hopped off on a mud road to check out a creek which had swallen up a bit, then reversed back through the mud while fishtailing all over the place to get back to pavement. After about 5 minutes of removing the thick mud from the bottom of our shoes, we headed back to Parker where I dropped Jon off and headed home.

Tomorrow holds a lot of the same potential in the Denver area and points east. With storms firing as far as Sterling and Julesburg, I may spread myself a bit more tomorrow for action further out east. With no plans or time constraints limiting my chasing tomorrow, I'll probably be content to venture out a bit further. Afterall, I ran over 130 miles and stayed mostly within the Metro area. I could make Limon and back on those.

Tuesday is my last free chasing day before returning to work on Wednesday. Models showing yet another chance for flooding storms. Weak shear may limit severe potential overall, but heavy rains like we saw today will definately be a possibility.

The next several days continue to hold severe potential across the Front Range areas of Colorado.

Today, storms are expected to fire shortly after noon and move slowly off the mountains and onto the Plains. Severe weather in the form of hail and high winds are the primary threats, however, slow storm motions and ample moisture will allow for heavy rains and the potential for flooding. Tornado chances are almost nonexistant, so will not be playing for those today. I have evening plans, so my range will stay pretty close to the Urban Cooridor today.

Sunday, much of the same can be expected tomorrow. Storms will again move in from the mountains and onto the Plains with hail and flooding the biggest threats. Monday and Tuesday should also have repeat setups before the ridge rebuilds over the area. Models are still hinting at the potential of a monsoon setup later in the week which would give way to more storm chances from Thursday on. Will watch for that as the event gets closer. My focus is on severe chances over the next few days.

My plans for today are to remain close to home til storms start to fire and will probably do what I did last Saturday in getting on a cell which is moving in my direction. Will likely follow it across town and perhaps onto the Plains, but seeing as the threats are for hail, wind, and rain, the better shows will be in the urban areas, thus I may give up the storm as it moves east of town unless it shows some signs worth sticking it out for.

Much of the same plans in the coming days as well, however, lack of any later plans will allow me a chance to play into the evening and possibly after dark, so lightning chances may open themselves up after today. Again, will play it by day and see how things are evolving.

Models are hinting at a few promising things storm-wise for the coming week, including hints of a monsoonal pattern which would give way to lightning opportunities as well as heavy rain producers. First thing's first, the upcoming days..

Tomorrow morning, a front will pass through Northern Colorado. This in turn will stabilize the atmosphere early in the day through mid-afternoon before easterly winds at the surface begin to advect moisture back against the Front Range. Storms should begin to fire in the mountains and gradually move onto the Plains. Weap upper level winds will mean slow storm motions. Heavy rain and hail will be the big threats.

Sunday, the classic day 2 setup again unfolds with the front well through the area and the chance for better moisture return setting up. Dews in the 50s will be scattered across the Plains, which will make for a nice, juicy enviornment for storms. Upper level winds again will be weak, thus slow moving and congealing storms will be the rule of thumb. Again, large hail and flooding rains will be the big threats. Sunday appears to be the best of the next four days, and also appears most likely travel day.

Monday and Tuesday, the pattern should hold giving us chances for storms each day. Again, hail and flooding the threats. Beyond that, the ridge sets up over us again warming us up and drying us out. Denver's AFD has pointed out that the passed several runs are indicating a chance that the pattern would shift to a monsoonal favorable pattern which will give us a chance for rain and lightning (small severe chances, but hail a possibility).

With summer in full throat, my expectations of storms shift from tornadoes to the photojournalistic stuff which comes with the slower moving severe storms. Large and/or accumulating hail along with crazy lightning and urban/flash flooding are my main catches through August. Tornado chances remain in the picture as a remote possibility, but certainly not something to gamble the farm over.

The National Weather Service in Denver released a preview of July's weather which summarizes the upcoming month and what climatology can be expected. July is dubbed as Denver's stormiest month, which has hardly been the case the passed couple of years. In fact, last July was when we set that record of consecutive days over 100 degrees. Typically, July is the least chased month for me out of the regular season months. Last season, I chased less than 300 miles over 2 chase days in which I never left the state. My insane tornado season of 2004 had no recorded July chases, nor did 2002. In fact, my only July tornado was on my only 2003 July chase which took me shy of 600 miles and I nabbed a brief gustnado near Julesburg. Total miles close in at 1000 for the seventh month over three chases with one tornado counted. So with that said, I'm hoping the 'Stormiest Month' title kicks in this montth and givesd me some local opportunities. Even if I get out on several days this month, I don't expect to log more than 1500 miles if even close to that due to the close proximity of the targets.

So with that said, the first day of July will bring the first chance at severe where a few days will line up straight through our Nation's birthday. I hope to get some fireworks from Nature seeing as you can't even touch the damn things here in Colorado this year.

Storm chances still looking slim for the coming days, but still keeping ana eye on the pattern in case something more organized can come into play. Saturday looks to be the start of a string of unsettled days which may last into the middle of the coming week. With Tuesday a free day for the 4th of July holiday, I'll have an extra chase day to play with if so needed. Right now, the best chances for severe sit in the midwest, and unless something looks incredibly good (and I mean incredible), I'll be keeping my focus close to home with targets as far out as a few hundred miles.

Website note, I updated a few links on the links page. Nothing too noteworthy; added chaser blogs and personal friends in a place where more people may see them. Also finally changed my chasing alert graphic to slight which is where it'll be most of the summer so long as storms remain a possibility. I probably won't change it beyond that unless a major overnight-type trip is setting up seeing as most chasing from here on out will be decided usually on the morning of.

Stay tuned for updates in the coming days as my storm days move closer.

I went out today and did some area damage surveys from the winds and hail which came through here shortly after nailing Wheat Ridge. A large tree came down over a fence off Alameda near Kipling in what was figured to be a healthy wind gust. Other shots included some neighborhood stuff of branches and leaves in the roads, driveways, and sidewalks. I posted pictures in my June 24 Storm Chase Log, so go check that out with its new updates.

Front Range chasing today as storms moved southeast off the foothills and into the Boulder/Denver Metro areas. I observed golfball sized hail as I moved quickly in and out of Boulder, then fired south into Denver and jumped on the storm again on the west side of town in the suburb of Wheat Ridge where I observed 1-inch diameter hail and minor street flooding. You can view the complete chase log here.

Chasing still remains on the list for today as a marginal setup is in place over the Front Range and parts of Eastern Colorado. Things oughta remain close to the Front Range for the most part as NW flow aloft will keep storm motions generally south and east. Storms will congeal as they move further into the Plains. My goals for daytime include hail and flooding; then pending the nighttime evolution and location of storms, may go for lightning after dark. I have no time restraints today thru Monday, so pending the evolution of the day itself, may elect to take the system into the southeast corner of the state if need be.

A side note for today; I am 234 miles from the 17,000 mile mark for this season. I've already set a new mileage record for most miles in a single seaosn beating out last year's total by 164, but every year, I seem to step up my travel by another grand. Depending on how the rest of the summer goes and of course any autumn chase trips, I could push myself beyond that into the 18s or higher.

The remaining could of days still hold potential, but it looks as if today's going to be the best of the three. Tomorrow may be a slow-moving, urban chasing setup with heavy rain producing storms with perhaps a bit of hail. Pending how conditions change further south of here (TX/OK Panhandles), I may consider staying over night in Southeast Colorado just in case the Panhandles open some surprise tomorrow. I've also considered the overnight stay in case I elect not to drive back to Denver tonight, particularly if tomorrow's target is in the same general area. I'll play that by year.

So with that, going to wait and see how things progress in the next couple of hours. WRF indicating storms firing along and north of I-70 near the foothills, then moving southeast towards the Limon/Lamar areas. I think our best chances will be close to home before things congeal further east. Will probably make my next tactical decision by that point.

My three day weekend begins tomorrow with what'll likely be the first of at least a pair of chases in the days up through Monday. A marginal setup in the works tomorrow which will hopefully give a longer period of storm isolation prior to the MCS merger. I have the benefit of time with this trip as I can chase well after dark and hopefully add to my lightning arsenal by weekend's end. If I were to pick one thing to come out of this weekend, it would be a few good lightning shots followed by some good hailers. I probably won't narrow down a target and forecast til tomorrow as it does not appear tomorrow is one of those if-you're-not-on-the-storm-by-1pm-you-miss-the-show type of days, which means I can sleep in and take my time getting going tomorrow. Hence why I'm up writing blogs at 1:22am while playing Pogo bowling with friends over Chicago, Chris Camozzi, and Roxette. Beyond tomorrow is a bit fuzzy as to which day between Sunday and Monday hold the best hope and where. If I had an overnight preference to chase, it would be Sunday night into Monday, so I wouldn't mind having a good nighttime opportunity Sunday and stay overnight in position for Monday. I'll play it by day, one of the perks of living in Colorado during this type of weather pattern.

So with that, I'll say adios for the night. Expect a midday update as I coordinate with my Colorado buds and figure out what I'm going to ultimately do.

I have elected to sit out this evening's chances northeast for a chance to recover for the weekend's action. Just as I get comfortable, Denver issues a rare afternoon HWO mentioning storms coming in from Wyoming which may produce severe weather including a few tornadoes. Nothing in Wyoming looks terribly exciting yet, but I suppose stranger things have happened. None-the-less, I don't imagine being lured out tonight at this point seeing as rush hour in Denver has begun and I'm looking at 45 minutes or more to get out of town. Not worth it at this point.

Still eyeing tomorrow thru Monday, all three days which I do have off, so chasing is definately in the picture if conditions warrent. Will check things out and make my decisions the mornings of unless I end up far enough from home one night to stay out.

I have posted my chase report from Thursday in Eastern Colorado. You can view that by clicking here. We missed the big tornado of the day and we're not sure by how much. The time of the reported tornado has us near Elbert and east (slightly north) of the tornado. We had no view due to precip, thus missing the big show. A fun, exciting chase none-the-less filled with the usual barrage of Jon/Tony humor, most of which occured while sitting in stopped traffic due to construction for 20 minutes. I posted a video clip on the log which contains a couple more notable moments.

Potential still exists for chasing in the upcoming days, including today. However, getting in after midnight last night and being up for work early this morning is making me lean towards sitting today out. Most of the best activity will be in Nebraska and South Dakota even as SPC has a slight risk pinned over the extreme northeastern part of the state. Not sure its motivation enough for me to venture out that way today with tomorrow looking decent and Sunday possibly holding potential. I'll play it by year today and see how it all develops. I drove to campus as a precaution just in case I get suckered out, but I'd say I'm sitting at about 30%. I'll update later.

Quick update to say I'm home and that my lo for today will be up tomorrow. While we didn't get any tornadoes today in what turned out to be a giant convective mess, there was one tornado in Elbert County which was on a storm Jon and I did get on. We'r trying to determine if the funnel we saw was the tornado that was spotted. Beyond that, we were on several storms which were warned for spotter-indicated tornadoes, but most tornado reports were in areas we could clearly see. We have a bit to look at for post-analysis, but the storms forming today we certainly not condusive for tornadoes after their initial development. I'll post a full report tomorrow. One thing I am happy to say is I nailed my forecast to a 'T'. I think we just were 30 minutes late or initiation was 30 minutes early. 501 miles rounded today, maybe more upcoming in the days ahead. See you in the morning!