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NFL Preview - Detroit (7-8) At Green Bay (12-3)

POSTED: 2:25 pm MST December 27, 2007

(Sports Network) - The last 16 times the Detroit Lions have been the road team in a matchup with the Green Bay Packers, the Lions have traveled back to the Motor City as losers.

Be it in Green Bay or Milwaukee, regular season or playoffs, Detroit hasn't won a road game against the Packers since way back in 1991, or one year before a guy named Favre entered the public consciousness.

On Sunday, the Lions will have a chance to both end that dubious streak and halt its current run of losing seasons at six consecutive, when it faces a Green Bay club that might choose to rest certain personnel in preparation for the postseason.

The NFC North champion Packers are locked into the No. 2 slot in the conference, carving out that position for themselves after they followed up Dallas' win at Carolina on Saturday night with a miserable performance in a 35-7 loss at Chicago on Sunday.

Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy told reporters earlier this week that the Packers will play to beat Detroit, though whether that's just a case of vaguely-worded rhetoric remains to be seen.

One has to believe that the Lions wouldn't be greatly disappointed to see Green Bay's backups for a majority of the contest.

A .500 season would represent major progress for an organization that went a combined 24-72 (.250) between 2001 and 2006, and would give Rod Marinelli's club an excellent springboard towards what will be an important 2008 for his staff.

The Lions, who started the season 6-2 before dropping six in a row to fall out of the playoff picture, reclaimed a spot in the win column with last Sunday's 25-20 triumph over the Kansas City Chiefs.

Win or lose on Sunday, Detroit will have posted its best campaign since going 9-7 in 2000.

SERIES HISTORY

The series between the Lions and Packers dates back to the 1930 season, with Green Bay holding a 83-64-7 regular season edge. The Pack was a 37-26 winner at Ford Field on Thanksgiving Day, and has now won six of its last seven with the Lions. Detroit's only win during that stretch came by a 17-3 count in Week 1 of the 2005 campaign in the Motor City.

The Lions are 0-12 in regular season games played at Lambeau Field since last winning there in 1991, and are 0-15 in away contests during that time frame when three matchups in Milwaukee are factored in.

In addition to the regular season series, the clubs have met twice in the postseason, with Green Bay winning NFC First-Round Playoff matchups in the 1993 and 1994 seasons. The '94 matchup was played in Green Bay.

McCarthy leads the series with both the Lions and Marinelli, 3-0.

WHEN THE LIONS HAVE THE BALL

Sunday's game could mark the final game in the era of Mike Martz's high-flying offense, as Martz was recently noncommittal about his future with the team when speaking to reporters. The Lions are eighth in NFL passing offense this season (242.1 yards per game), but Martz's attack has been criticized for being too one-dimensional and subject to turnovers. Quarterback Jon Kitna (3822 passing yards, 17 TD, 18 INT) has not experienced a particularly strong second half of the season, and a Lions offensive line that has allowed a league-high 54 sacks on the year has not shown enough improvement. Kitna's main targets this week will be Shaun McDonald (74 receptions, 5 TD) and rookie Calvin Johnson (44 receptions, 5 TD), who combined for four of Kitna's scant nine completions in the Kansas City game. With wideout Roy Williams and running back Kevin Jones both down for the year due to knee injuries, bruising rusher T.J. Duckett (306 rushing yards, 3 TD) has seen more touches of late. Subbing most of last week for the injured Jones, Duckett carried 15 times for 102 yards and a touchdown in his best game as a Lion to date.

The Packers enter Week 17 ranked 10th in NFL total defense (314.7 yards per game), but come off a week in which they allowed "the other" Adrian Peterson and a poor Bears running game to churn up 139 yards and set the offensive tone. The Green Bay linebacking corps of Nick Barnett (130 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 2 INT) in the middle and Brady Poppinga (47 tackles, 1 INT) and A.J. Hawk (103 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) on the flanks might receive only limited time this week, but will have to make more of an impact while in the lineup. Up front, Packers fans are likely to see a great deal of rookie tackle and first-round draft choice Justin Harrell (14 tackles), who has garnered more extensive time of late and chipped in with five stops against the Bears. If McCarthy is intent on holding key defensive players out, he will likely start with end Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (24 tackles, 9.5 sacks) and cornerback Charles Woodson (63 tackles, 4 INT), both of whom have experienced injury problems this season. End Aaron Kampman (64 tackles, 12 sacks), who was last week named to his second straight Pro Bowl, could also be limited for precautionary reasons.

WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL

Green Bay's dangerous passing game was hampered by cold and inclement weather in Chicago last Sunday, and this week's Lambeau Field forecast (32 degrees with snow showers) does not suggest that Brett Favre (4056 passing yards, 26 TD, 15 INT) and company will be flying up and down the field. Favre is unlikely to play the entire game before yielding to Aaron Rodgers (218 passing yards, 1 TD, 0 INT), and wideouts Donald Driver (82 receptions, 2 TD) and Greg Jennings (53 receptions, 12 TD) figure to see less time than the likes of James Jones (45 receptions, 2 TD), Koren Robinson (17 receptions), and Ruvell Martin (15 receptions, 3 TD). Packers first-year running back Ryan Grant (899 rushing yards, 7 TD, 30 receptions) is within 101 yards of the 1,000-yard plateau, but given the circumstances of the game, it seems unlikely that he'll garner enough touches to reach the milestone. Rookie and second-round draft choice Brandon Jackson (154 rushing yards, 1 TD, 14 receptions), who carried three times for 25 yards in Chicago last Sunday, figures to receive his most extensive carries since early in the season.

A Lions defense that ranks last in NFL total defense (376.5 yards per game), scoring defense (27.3 points per game), and has allowed a league-high-tying 29 passing touchdowns could certainly use a belated Christmas gift in the guise of the Packers' second-string attack this week. Last Sunday, the Lions allowed the formerly-deficient Chiefs passing game to pile up 374 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Detroit did manage four sacks of Kansas City QB Damon Huard, including two from disappointing tackle Shaun Rogers (35 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 1 INT), and linebacker Paris Lenon (111 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) came up with the play of the day when he intercepted a Brodie Croyle pass and returned it 61 yards for a Lions touchdown. Detroit is a middle-of-the-pack 19th in the NFL against the run (112.9 yards per game), but held the Chiefs to just 63 yards on the ground last Sunday. Linebacker Ernie Sims (127 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) has been the club's most reliable tackler throughout the year.

FANTASY FOCUS

This game is a prime example of why fantasy football championships generally take place on Week 16 rather than Week 17. There is simply no assurance that any of the Packers' offensive stars will play consistent minutes on Sunday, meaning you're taking a major risk in starting Favre, Driver, Jennings, Grant, or even NFL scoring leader and rookie kicker Mason Crosby.

The Lions' first-string will play the entire game, but it doesn't seem likely that the team will display any aerial proficiency given the expected conditions. If there's a player to start, it might be Duckett, who should see between 15-20 carries and might be facing a depleted defense.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

We already know that the Packers are far superior to the Lions based on the result when these teams met on Thanksgiving, but the circumstances of this week's contest make predicting an outcome problematic. Detroit never plays well in Green Bay, but given that the game should mean more to the Lions, and that the Packers are probably going to play a lot of backup personnel, Kitna and company really should come out of Lambeau Field with a victory.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Lions 21, Packers 20

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