It's February and the entertainment industry's award season is now in full bloom -- even though who will win what and what so-and-so was wearing to the annual ceremony is probably the farthest thing from most people's minds.
Forget what people might be saying about the value of the entertainment universe offering the public escapism. Survival, rather than fantasy, will remain top of mind for the vast majority of consumers for the foreseeable future. Most are just trying to struggle in these troubled economic times. Furthermore, the already ailing music industry -- like the nation's newspapers -- can surely expect bleaker financial news in 2009 as more and more erstwhile customers find renting a movie or video game for $5 or so beating out $15 for a CD. (And that's ignoring the continued effects of illegal downloading.)
The Grammy awards themselves often don't help the music world in scaring away these looming storm clouds. The program, set to air on Sunday, has value in promoting certain performers and can be relied upon to reintroduce an underappreciated record from the past year. But in the vast majority of cases, the awards themselves continue to function as an annual gut shot for an industry always desperate to prove its hipness.
This can chiefly be blamed on the cultural tone deafness of a majority of Grammy voters, whose institutional memory casts an unusually long and detrimental shadow in each of the categories. The Grammy voters too often pay homage to pop-music veterans and previous award winners instead of focusing on new artists or those delving into edge-y material. As a result, the nominees and performance roster looks more like a wish list divined by crotchety, entrenched interests who do their music shopping at Borders Books. This surely isn't something decided by the industry's best and brightest. This is the reason every year, the most-brazen acts are stuck in their seats or not nominated at all while the multiplatinum set are shown the express lane to center stage.
What the music industry needs is an event which can present the breadth and depth of their creative reservoirs and make people excited about buying music again. The Grammys just aren't that kind of show.
To a certain extent, debating who will win what award this year seems as silly an enterprise as arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. But, I'm used to fruitlessness -- I'm an avid music fan after all -- so here's my list of predictions on who'll walk away with the most coveted phonograph statues this year:
Record Of The Year - Adele "Chasing Pavements"
- Coldplay "Viva La Vida"
- Leona Lewis "Bleeding Love"
- M.I.A. "Paper Plane"
- Robert Plant & Alison Krauss "Please Read The Letter"
The prediction: Robert Plant & Alison Krauss. This should be a fairly ridiculous competition as I expect Plant and Kraus to win almost every award they're up for easily. This comes down to the pair's strength of demographics. Plant, as erstwhile golden god, can count on support from devout rock fans and former Led Zeppelin maniacs, of which there are many. Meanwhile, Kraus is sure to galvanize all the country music voters. This will make it almost impossible for an Adele or Leona Lewis to overtake the duo. Kudos goes to Grammy nominators for shoehorning rapper M.I.A. as one of nominees as she definitely deserves top-level recognition for her marvelous CD. Why Coldplay, whose album is widely perceived to be a commercial flop, is on this list at all is a mystery.
Album Of The Year - Coldplay "Viva La Vida Or Death And All His Friends"
- Lil Wayne "That Carter III"
- Ne-Yo "Year Of The Gentleman"
- Robert Plant & Alison Krauss "Raising Sand"
- Radiohead "In Rainbows"
The prediction: Robert Plant & Alison Krauss. Again, expect the conservative elements in Grammy-land to seek solace in the safest possible choice. It's worth saying that "Raising Sand" is an excellent record, but was it the definitive record of 2008? No. Coldplay's appearance in this category is a joke now taken too far. Rapper Lil Wayne and singer Ne-Yo released two of hip-hop and R&B's leading albums in last year, but their common base of support will mean that votes will likely be split between them. Radiohead, who made headlines and industry waves with their unorthodox release of "In Rainbows," could find itself as the unexpected winner should progressive interests rally together. The group's album was a return to form for the British art-rockers and that, combined with the group's marketing ploy, could translate into a statue.
Song Of The Year - Estelle "American Boy"
- Adele "Chasing Pavements"
- Jason Mraz "I'm Yours"
- Sara Bareilles "Love Song"
- Coldplay "Viva La Vida"
The prediction: Coldplay. I know, I know, but despite what I've said about "Viva La Vida," we can expect that this song to get strong support. It was nominated after all. More likely, it's the fact that several nominees sharing similar constituencies will give Chris Martin and company an edge. In end, supporters for the other nominees will likely split the vote. Jason Mraz is odd man out and can't rely on the broader base than Coldplay -- as anemic as their last record was -- can still command.
Best New Artist - Adele
- Duffy
- Jonas Brothers
- Lady Antebellum
- Jazmine Sullivan
The prediction: Jonas Brothers. If these guys don't win, don't expect to hear much besides the screams of young girls everywhere, calling out in anguish. Actually, expect the same waves of maniacal screaming if they do win.
Best Male Pop Vocal Performance - Kid Rock "All Summer Long"
- Paul McCartney "That Was Me"
- John Mayer "Say"
- Jason Mraz "I'm Yours"
- Ne-Yo "Closer"
- James Taylor "Wichita Lineman"
The prediction: Ne-Yo. This will be an upset. However, the fact that Ne-Yo has to compete against a group of white rock musicians -- including two legends -- should allow him to cull the most support among hip-hop fans.
Best Female Pop Vocal Performance - Adele "Chasing Pavements"
- Sara Bareilles "Love Song"
- Duffy "Mercy"
- Leona Lewis "Bleeding Love"
- Katy Perry "I Kissed A Girl"
- Pink "So What"
The prediction: Katy Perry. Leona Lewis, who has some industry heavyweights behind her (Clive Davis, Simon Cowell of "American Idol"), could pose a serious challenge in this category, but Perry's vixen-ish song was one of the monster hits last summer. This should give her the clear advantage.
Best Pop Performance By A Duo Or Group With Vocal - Coldplay "Viva La Vida"
- The Eagles "Waiting In The Weeds"
- Gnarls Barkley "Going On"
- Maroon 5 "Won't Go Home Without You"
- OneRepublic "Apologize"
The prediction: The Eagles. The recent albums by Gnarls Barkley and Maroon 5 failed to live up to the level set by previous discs and their nominations here reflects their past achievements. OneRepublic is still a bit of an unknown to most mainstream fans and Coldplay can't hype their way into winning this award with this kind of competition. In the end, the gray-haired Eagles are the only rock legends in this contest and the group's simple return to the recording studio might be enough to bowl over folks.
Best Pop Vocal Album - Sheryl Crow "Detours"
- Duffy "Rockferry"
- The Eagles "Long Road Out Of Eden"
- Leona Lewis "Spirit"
- James Taylor "Covers"
The prediction: Leona Lewis. Finally, a youngster snatches this away from the old guys. In this case, the rock dinosaurs will cancel each other out in this contest. It's a safe bet that whoever owns Sheryl Crow's latest, probably has James Taylor's records and the Eagles' amongst their country/folk rock oeuvre. Lewis hasn't crossed over yet to a mass audience and this award will make a nice debut. She has enough industry backing that fear/sucking up to the big wigs will certainly help her out.
Best Electronic/Dance Album - Brazilian Girls "New York City"
- Daft Punk "Alive 2007"
- Cyndi Lauper "Bring Ya To The Brink"
- Kylie Minogue "X"
- Moby "Last Night"
- Robyn "Robyn"
The prediction: Robyn. European export Robyn was essentially overlooked last year despite having one of the best pop albums of the year. Expect the under-the-radar buzz to finally pay off ehre. Kylie Minogue, who has suffered from health problems in recent years, might take this away from her because of the sympathy vote.
Best Solo Rock Vocal Performance - John Mayer "Gravity"
- Paul McCartney "I Saw Her Standing There"
- Bruce Springsteen "Girls In Their Summer Clothes"
- Eddie Vedder "Rise"
- Neil Young "No Hidden Path"
The prediction: Bruce Springsteen. Fresh off his Super Bowl appearance, you can expect Bruce to triumphantly claim this prize, fending off fellow grizzled codgers like Paul McCartney and Neil Young. Springsteen's last album, "Magic," might have failed to live up to the lofty standards set by his greatest discs, but it was the kind of sugar-y, mainstream rock that old fans wanted of the Boss' reunion with the E Street Band. Viewers should expect he'll get this award as a thank you for picking up the electric guitar again after dabbling in folk music again a couple of years ago. John Mayer could take this away from him if enough of the youth vote gathers around him.
Best Rock Performance By A Duo Or Group With Vocals - AC/DC "Rock N Roll Train"
- Coldplay "Violet Hill"
- The Eagles "Long Road Out Of Eden"
- Kings Of Leon "Sex On Fire"
- Radiohead "House Of Cards"
The prediction: AC/DC. This will be an upset too, but these guys have sold a surprising amount of records despite the consistency of all their songs. Is it about time the industry recognized a career based on heavy-ish, blues guitar licks and sexual inneundo? Despite the band's debauched reputation, the AC/DC guys are seen as more loveable than the Eagles, who just seethe with egotism despite their career ups and downs. Radiohead could steal this away if voters want to think ahead and award the group for being trailblazers.
Best Hard Rock Performance - Disturbed "Inside The Fire"
- Judas Priest "Visions"
- The Mars Volta "Wax Simulacra"
- Motley Crue "Saints Of Los Angeles"
- Rob Zombie "Lords Of Salem"
The prediction: The Mars Volta. Everyone likes the Mars Volta although few understand their frenetic and vicious music. People need not understand what the group, lead by the former At The Drive-In members, are wailing about to appreciate the grandeur of their complicated arrangements and eclectic tastes. There are enough famous names in here to keep this category interesting, but I think the Volta's underground support will give them the nod.
Best Metal Performance - DragonForce "Heroes Of Our Time"
- Judas Priest "Nostradamus"
- Metallica "My Apocalypse"
- Ministry "Under My Thumb"
- Slipknot "Psychosocial"
The prediction: Metallica. They'll win this category every time for losing to Jethro Tull all those years ago. Enough said.
Best Rock Song - Bruce Springsteen "Girls In Their Summer Clothes"
- Radiohead "House Of Cards"
- Death Cab For Cutie "I Will Possess You Heart"
- Kings Of Leon "Sex On Fire"
- Coldplay "Violet Hill"
The prediction: Bruce Springsteen. Same as above.
Best Rock Album - Coldplay "Viva La Vida"
- Kid Rock "Rock N Roll Jesus"
- Kings Of Leon "Only By The Night"
- Metallica "Death Magnetic"
- The Raconteurs "Consolers Of The Lonely"
The prediction: Metallica. This might be a bit of a surprise to some but the band certainly has more fans than these other acts. Because "Death Magnetic" is perceived as a return to their epic, thrash days from the '80s should count in the Bay Area metalheads' favor. Kings of Leon could be the dark horse.
Best Alternative Music Album - Beck "Modern Guilt"
- Death Cab For Cutie "Narrow Stairs"
- My Morning Jacket "Evil Urges"
- Gnarls Barkley "The Odd Couple"
- Radiohead "In Rainbows"
The prediction: Radiohead. After wandering in the avant-garde, digital wilderness since the "OK Computer Days," Thom Yorke and his bandmates finally got serious in 2007 about making accessible music again and like magic, mainstream audiences got into Radiohead again. The group's disc was the strongest of these nominated albums and is the clear frontrunner. My Morning Jacket, which has made inroads in popular tastes, could sneak away with this if enough voters have seen their inspiring live shows.
Best Female R&B Vocal Performance - Beyonce "Me, Myself And I"
- Keyshia Cole "Heaven Sent"
- Alicia Keys "Superwoman"
- Jennifer Hudson "Spotlight"
- Jazmine Sullivan "Neeed U Bad "
The prediction: Jennifer Hudson. Here, I think the sympathy vote will count for a lot. Members of Hudson's family were killed last fall and this might tilt this contest in her factor. Alicia Keys and Beyonce have huge followings, but voters might move closer toward acknowledging Hudson's Cinderalla-story-turned-nightmare.
Best R&B Performance By A Duo Or Group With Vocals - Boyz II Men "Ribbon In The Sky"
- Anthony David featuring India.Arie "Words"
- Al Green featuring John Legend "Stay With Me (By The Sea)"
- Jennifer Hudson featuring Fantasia "I'm His Only Woman"
- Raphael Saadiq featuring Stevie Wonder & CJ Hilton "Never Give You Up"
The prediction: Al Green. Hooking up with the Roots' ?uestlove and his posse of hip-hop/R&B radicals gave us his strongest album in years. Journeyman songwriter/producer Raphael Saadiq continues to try to break out, but the desire to welcome Green back to the fold will keep him from the spotlight once again.
Best R&B Song - Jazmine Sullivan "Bust Your Winds"
- Raheem DeVaughn "Customer"
- Keyshia Cole "Heaven Sent"
- Ne-Yo "Miss Indepdent"
- Jennifer Hudson "Spotlight"
The prediction: Jennifer Hudson. Again, sympathy might taint this category. Ne-Yo might be able to steal this away provided voters look beyond their other agenda.
Best R&B Album - Eric Benet "Love & Life"
- Boyz II Men "Motown: A Journey Through Hitsville USA"
- Al Green "Lay It Down"
- Jennifer Hudson "Jennifer Hudson"
- Raphael Saadiq "The Way I See it"
The prediction: Al Green. This is an unlikely win for Green, but he remains a legend who has spent years trying to win back the '70s hip allure he lost when he steered away from soulful slow jams to music with more explicit religious overtones. R&B audiences want elements of church music in their hits. They don't want preaching, however. Green's hookup with hip-hop heretics was a step closer to embracing his old sound.
Best Contemporary R&B Album - Mary J. Blige "Growing Pains"
- J. Holiday "Back Of My Lac'"
- Karina "First Love"
- Jazmine Sullivan "Fearless"
- Ne-Yo "Year Of The Gentleman"
The prediction: Mary J. Blige. She'll win every category she's entered in purely on her reputation. All the newbies in this contest should prepare to have their dreams crushed.
Best Rap Solo Performance - Jay-Z "Roc Boys (And The Winner Is) …"
- Lil Wayne "A Milli"
- Lupe Fiasco "Paris, Tokyo"
- Nas "Ni**** (The Slave And The Master)"
- Snoop Dogg "Sexual Eruption"
The prediction: Lil Wayne. Any other year, Jay-Z would own this. However, Lil Wayne suggested he has a lot more creatively on the mic and an arsenal of beats than we might previously have anticipated. His album missed nominations in many other big categories (except Album Of The Year) so this will be a consolation prize. Releases by Nas and Snoop weren't career-highs for them and should pose no serious challenge to Lil Wayne this year.
Best Rap Solo Performance By A Duo Or Group - Big Boi featuring Raekwon And Andre 3000 "Royal Flush"
- Jay-Z & T.I. "Swagga Like Us"
- Lil Wayne featuring Jay-Z "Mr. Carter"
- Ludacris featuring T.I. "Wish You Would"
- Young Jeezy featuring Kanye West "Put On"
The prediction: Lil Wayne featuring Jay-Z. Finally, the rivals can team up. They should outmatch any of these other pairings, including Jay's own jam with T.I.
Best Rap Song - Lil Wayne featuring Static Major "Lollipop"
- Flo Rida featuring T-Pain "Low"
- Snoop Dogg "Sexual Eruption"
- Lupe Fiasco featuring Matthew Santos "Superstar"
- Jay-Z & T.I. featuring Kanye West & Lil Wayne "Swagga Like Us"
The prediction: Jay-Z & T.I. featuring Kanye West & Lil Wayne. Could this track have more talent stuffed into it? Voters can honor most of hip-hop's biggest stars by voting in favor of this one song.
Best Rap Album - Jay-Z "American Gangster"
- Lil Wayne "Tha Carter III"
- Lupe Fiasco "The Cool"
- Nas "Nas"
- T.I. "Paper Trail"
The prediction: Lil Wayne. The widespread support of Lil Wayne among the Pitchfork crowd might be the key factor in allowing him to slip past Jay-Z in this and other categories. Efforts by Nas and T.I. are more examples of nominations meant to honor artists for previous work.
Best Country Performance By A Duo Or Group With Vocals - Brooks & Dunn "God Must Be Busy"
- Lady Antebellum "Love Don't Live Here"
- Rascal Flatts "Every Day"
- The SteelDrivers "Blue Side Of The Mountain "
- Sugarland "Stay"
The prediction: Sugarland. This is a bit of an upset but Sugarland nabbed nominations in several key country categories and might take this and other awards from bigger names.
Best Male Country Vocal Performance - Trace Adkins "You're Gonna Miss This"
- Jamey Johnson "In Color"
- James Otto "Just Got Started Lovin' You"
- Brad Paisley "Letter To Me"
- George Strait "Troubadour"
The prediction: Jamey Johnson. The singer will likely be shut out by other acts in other categories. In this case, vets like Paisley and Strait could cancel each other out, leaving Johnson with less-well-known artists like Adkins and Otto to fend off.
Best Country Song - Randy Travis "Dig Two Graves"
- George Strait "I Saw God Today"
- Jamey Johnson "In Color"
- Sugarland "Stay"
- Trace Adkins "You're Gonna Miss This"
The prediction: Sugarland. Another upset for Sugarland.
Best Country Album - Jamey Johnson "That Lonesome Song"
- Patty Loveless "Sleepless Nights"
- George Strait "Troubadour"
- Randy Travis "Around The Bend"
- Trisha Yearwood "Heaven, Heartache And The Power Of Love"
The prediction: Trisha Yearwood. Another result of too many nominees sharing a similar fan base. Travis and Strait should split off their constituencies while Yearwood will command many more female voters than Patty Loveless. This should give her the advantage.
Best Contemporary Folk/Americana Album - Joan Baez "Day After Tomorrow"
- Ry Cooder "I, Flathead"
- Rodney Crowell "Sex & Gasoline"
- Emmylou Harris "All I Intended To Be"
- Robert Plant & Alison Krauss "Raising Sand"
The prediction: Robert Plant & Alison Krauss. This should be a cakewalk for Plant and Krauss. While this category often functions as a consolation prize for artists who don't get nominated for the big awards, this year it will be part of the singers' big sweep.
For More Info: Previous Columns:Note: David's music column, Soundbytes, appears Wednesdays in our Entertainment section. He welcomes your questions and comments
