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Politics

New Colorado Polls Show Bush, Kerry Tied

President Has 9-Point Lead In Third Poll

POSTED: 5:59 am MDT October 8, 2004
UPDATED: 2:56 pm MDT October 8, 2004

Just three days before President Bush was scheduled to make his third campaign trip to Colorado this year, two new polls show a tie in the presidential race, while a third poll shows President George W. Bush leading Sen. John Kerry in Colorado.

A Gallup poll released Friday showed Bush and Sen. John Kerry in a tie. Each had 49 percent of likely voters and Ralph Nader had one percent. Among registered voters, the Gallup poll showed each with 48 percent. The poll was conducted between Oct. 3 and Oct. 6.

Another poll also showed Bush and Kerry in a dead heat in Colorado. The CNN/USA Today/Gallup telephone poll conducted Sunday through Wednesday found Bush and Kerry each received support from 49 percent of likely voters, with 1 percent backing Ralph Nader and 1 percent unsure. That poll of 667 people was conducted Sunday through Wednesday, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

A third poll showed the Republican incumbent leading Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry among the state's likely voters.

Bush had support from 50 percent of the Coloradans surveyed compared with Kerry's 41 percent, according to The Denver Post poll results published Friday. Seven percent of the respondents said they were still unsure how they would vote in the November general election, and 2 percent said they would cast ballots for independent candidates including Ralph Nader. The poll was conducted between Oct. 4 and Oct. 6.

The telephone poll, conducted for The Post by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., surveyed 630 randomly selected voters who said they planned to vote Nov. 2. Mason-Dixon, which contacted voters Monday through Wednesday this week, said the poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

"While we are encouraged, I think it would be a mistake to become overconfident at this stage," said Ted Halaby, chairman of Colorado's Republican Party.

Democrats complained that the Mason-Dixon poll shortchanged members of Kerry's party as well as independents.

"Everything we've seen is in the sort of dead-heat range," said Chris Gates, chairman of the state's Democratic party. "John Kerry would not be spending three days in a state he did not think he could win. George Bush would not be campaigning repeatedly here in a state he thought he'd already won."

Whatever the polling numbers, both candidates have spent a lot of time in Colorado, which Bush won by eight points in 2000. Kerry made his fifth visit to Colorado this week as he prepared for Friday night's presidential debate. He departed Denver on Thursday evening en route to St. Louis.

Earlier polls have given mixed signals on the battle for Colorado's nine electoral votes.

A September poll gave Bush a 12-point lead over Kerry in Colorado, which hasn't been won by a Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992. In all, 51 percent said they would vote for Bush while 39 percent backed Kerry, according to the telephone survey of 600 registered voters conducted for The Pueblo Chieftain. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

A few days earlier, a survey of 500 registered voters for the Rocky Mountain News showed Bush and Kerry in a virtual tie.

"We're cautiously optimistic about Colorado," said Nicol Andrews, a Bush campaign spokeswoman in Colorado. "The president isn't taking anything for granted."

Bush planned to visit Denver on Monday to help raise money for Republican U.S. Senate candidate Pete Coors, and was scheduled to attend a campaign rally of his own at Red Rocks Amphitheatre. El Paso County-area GOP leaders have said Bush will also appear at a rally on Tuesday at the Colorado Springs World Arena.

"We are looking forward to his visit and are confident that our grass-roots army will turn out the vote on Nov. 2.," Andrews said. "That's what this race will come down to."

Salazaar Leads Coors In Gallup Poll

A Gallup poll shows democrats may pick up a U.S. Senate seat in Colorado. If the election were held today, the poll suggests that the Democrats would be successful in taking back the seat held by Ben Nighthorse Campbell, with Democratic candidate and current state Attorney General Ken Salazar leading Republican candidate Pete Coors, heir of the famous brewing company, by a 54 percent to 43 percent margin among likely voters.

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