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PRESIDENT-ELECT BARACK OBAMA

New Mexico: Recent Elections Split

Candidates Want Southwest Support

POSTED: 9:20 am MDT August 29, 2008
UPDATED: 10:31 am MDT September 18, 2008

In the political arena, New Mexico has become perhaps the most unpredictable swing state. In 2004, the state voted to re-elect President George W. Bush by a slim margin -- 3000 votes. The margin was even tighter in 2000, with former Democratic Vice President Al Gore winning by a mere 300 votes.

Despite having only five electoral votes to offer, New Mexico is sought after because of its status as a "mountain west state." Democratic Sen. Barack Obama's campaign is relying heavily on the state. Considering the difficulty of taking big working-class states such as Ohio and Florida, where Democratic support may fall unexpectedly short, New Mexico may be a safer bet when paired with another state from the region such as Colorado or Nevada.

Democratic strategist Mark Mellman said, "There are a limited number of possibilities to change the electoral map for Democrats. These three states figure prominently."

In fact, if Obama's electoral votes turn out to emulate those of Sen. John Kerry's in 2004, the Illinois senator will still be 18 votes short of a victory. Since the past two presidential elections have shown that relying on a single state is poor political strategy (once again considering Ohio and Florida), 2008's winner will have to take a more regional approach.

New Mexico, in terms of its political outlook, is a standalone state. In 2008, each one of its congressional seats will be open, so the numerous elections will bring a high voter turnout rate.

New Mexico is a standalone state for a number of other reasons. The state features abundant Hispanic and Native American populations. There is a high number or veterans as well. Fifty percent of the state's voters are registered Democrats. And, it's right next door to Republican Sen. John McCain's home turf of Arizona.

Yet with a small population that will be subject to a torrent of political ads until November, it is impossible to predict whom New Mexico's five electoral votes will go to.

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