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Recession: Colorado's In One Too

Later Start Could Mean Delayed Exit

POSTED: 4:20 pm MST December 2, 2008
UPDATED: 6:43 pm MST December 2, 2008

Recessions are traditionally defined as two consecutive quarters, or six months, where national gross domestic product drops, unemployment rises, personal income drops and retail sales drop.

They are cyclical downturns in the economy that tend to follow - and are greatly outnumbered by - lengthy periods of growth.

They also tend to mean different things to different people.

"The economy is taking a break, which means we're just not spending and everyone is short on money. Everyone is short on cash," said college student Lindsey Castro.

"Basically it's foreclosures, the mortgage companies, bailing out banks, just everything that's affecting us," said another student, Taylor Biskup.

Since the 1930s, the United States has gone though a recession every 10 years with each one lasting an average of eight to 10 months.

But experts said this one will not follow those rules.

"That formal definition of a recession doesn't do you a lot of good when you're the person that lost the job," said Alexandra Hall, chief economist for the State Department of Labor and Employment. "It will take longer in recessionary periods to find work but there are companies hiring."

Hall said Colorado is in recession now but that it started later than the December 2007 start date offered by the National Bureau of Economic Research on Monday.

She started seeing job losses outnumbering job growth in September and October 2008.

Hall believes our state will end up with a net job loss for the year.

"I think '09 is going to be a tough, tough year. I don't think we're going to see a lot in the way of job growth," Hall said.

While looking at the NBER's Web site, another economist points to the deep, downward spikes that mark recessions.

"We don't want to see too many of these," said Dr. Mohammed Akacem, economics professor at Metro State in Denver.

He's been telling students for weeks that the country was in a recession, although a different one.

"I think the context is a little more complex and it's worldwide too. Now we're looking at not only the domestic market but we're looking at the global financial market," Akacem said. "I don't remember these events coming together as they have but globally, not just for the U.S. That's why I think any forecast is going to be very, very hard to come up with."

Both economists said confidence is more important than defining recession.

Because two-thirds of our economy is based on consumer spending, neighbors buying new cars and new houses could be signs that we're coming out of the recession.

But no one expects that will happen quickly.
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