Study: Obesity May Cause U.S. Life Expectancy To Dip
Critic Calls Predictions 'Excessively Gloomy'
UPDATED: 12:45 pm MST March 17,
2005
BOSTON -- Although life expectancy is at an all-time high, a new report said that centuries of medical progress might be overturned by a new epidemic.
U.S. life expectancy is now more than 77.5 years. But a study appearing in Thursday's issue of the New England Journal of Medicine found that will fall dramatically in coming years because people are getting fatter.
Citing a ballooning childhood obesity epidemic, the study authors predict life expectancy will be cut short by up to five years in the next 50 years, reported WCVB-TV in Boston. The study found that obesity currently reduces life expectancy by about four to nine months.
The researchers based their predictions on national data on obesity prevalence and previously published estimates of years-of-life lost from obesity."The childhood obesity epidemic can be compared to a massive tsunami heading toward the United States," said study researcher Dr. David Ludwig, the director of the obesity program at Children's Hospital in Boston. "Once you see the water levels rising at shoreline, it's too late to take protective action."Two-thirds of U.S. adults are overweight or obese. Ludwig said because of obesity, children as young as 10 are developing type 2 diabetes, once called "adult onset" diabetes. And he predicted complications of the disease could shave two to five years off the average life expectancy."We're looking at a prospect of heart attack, stroke becoming relatively common conditions in young adulthood. It's a really frightening prospect," said Ludwig.Ludwig cited sobering figures: Soft drink consumption is up 500 percent since the 1950s. One additional soda each day increases a child's obesity risk by 60 percent. For each hour a child watches television on average each day, their obesity risk climbs 12 percent. If they exercised for that hour, children could lower their obesity risk by 10 percent.University of Illinois at Chicago researcher S. Jay Olshansky said the findings show that for the first time in modern history, today's younger generation will have shorter and less healthy lives than their parents."The magnitude of that effect may sound trivial to some, but in fact, it's greater than the negative effect of all accidental mortality, such as car accidents, suicides and homicides combined," Olshansky said in a news release. He said one positive side effect might be it could inadvertently help "save" Social Security."Some may view this as pessimistic," Olshansky said. "But in fact, it is a realistic assessment of where we are today and where we appear to be headed in the future. It is a problem that can be fixed."Early reaction to the study is mixed, and in an accompanying editorial in the journal, University of Pennsylvania demography expert Samuel Preston called the projections "excessively gloomy."But other experts agree the issue must be addressed."We're seeing that teenagers have cardiovascular risk factors, and these are things that we never thought would occur during childhood, and so I think it's a tremendous red flag," said Dr. Allan Walker, of Harvard Medical School."If we can't get a handle on the rising rates and turn them around, we're going to see elevated rates of death and disability," said Dr. Mathew Gillman, of Harvard Medical School.Experts say larger studies are needed before the theory will be widely accepted by the medical community.
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Video: The researchers based their predictions on national data on obesity prevalence and previously published estimates of years-of-life lost from obesity."The childhood obesity epidemic can be compared to a massive tsunami heading toward the United States," said study researcher Dr. David Ludwig, the director of the obesity program at Children's Hospital in Boston. "Once you see the water levels rising at shoreline, it's too late to take protective action."Two-thirds of U.S. adults are overweight or obese. Ludwig said because of obesity, children as young as 10 are developing type 2 diabetes, once called "adult onset" diabetes. And he predicted complications of the disease could shave two to five years off the average life expectancy."We're looking at a prospect of heart attack, stroke becoming relatively common conditions in young adulthood. It's a really frightening prospect," said Ludwig.Ludwig cited sobering figures: Soft drink consumption is up 500 percent since the 1950s. One additional soda each day increases a child's obesity risk by 60 percent. For each hour a child watches television on average each day, their obesity risk climbs 12 percent. If they exercised for that hour, children could lower their obesity risk by 10 percent.University of Illinois at Chicago researcher S. Jay Olshansky said the findings show that for the first time in modern history, today's younger generation will have shorter and less healthy lives than their parents."The magnitude of that effect may sound trivial to some, but in fact, it's greater than the negative effect of all accidental mortality, such as car accidents, suicides and homicides combined," Olshansky said in a news release. He said one positive side effect might be it could inadvertently help "save" Social Security."Some may view this as pessimistic," Olshansky said. "But in fact, it is a realistic assessment of where we are today and where we appear to be headed in the future. It is a problem that can be fixed."Early reaction to the study is mixed, and in an accompanying editorial in the journal, University of Pennsylvania demography expert Samuel Preston called the projections "excessively gloomy."But other experts agree the issue must be addressed."We're seeing that teenagers have cardiovascular risk factors, and these are things that we never thought would occur during childhood, and so I think it's a tremendous red flag," said Dr. Allan Walker, of Harvard Medical School."If we can't get a handle on the rising rates and turn them around, we're going to see elevated rates of death and disability," said Dr. Mathew Gillman, of Harvard Medical School.Experts say larger studies are needed before the theory will be widely accepted by the medical community.
Study AbstractDistributed by Internet Broadcasting Systems, Inc. The Associated Press contributed to this report. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
