Posted: April 4, 2012:

Record winter warmth, early and extreme tornado outbreaks, bitter cold in Europe and Asia - are these random events or are they related to Global Warming? The answer is not as easy as a simply yes or no, but overall the answer is yes!

Climate change & extreme weather are linked. Even though an individual severe weather event cannot be blamed on Global Warming, a warmer climate should bring more frequent severe weather events in the future.

Climate Central is an excellent resource to learn more about how Global Warming will impact conditions in Colorado, across the nation and around the world.

El Nino and La Nina episodes may altered in the coming century.

Hailstorms in Colorado may become less intense due to a warmer cliamte.

Penn State has put together an excellent series on Climate Change and Ethics.

One Cold Winter Does Not Mean There Is No Global Warming

There are often comments and questions about Global Warming when unusual local weather events occur - such as snow in Las Vegas or extreme cold weather in Texas. It is important to understand that short term weather is to climate as one play in a football game is to the entire NFL season.

For example, the extreme episodes of cold and snow in southern locales is due to a southern bulge in the circumpolar vortex, bringing the chilly air down from Alaska and Canada into the lower 48 states. Often, while portions of the lower 48 states are shivering, Fairbanks is enjoying very mild weather for their area. When that vortex drifts back to the north, Fairbanks is very cold again and Colorado may hit 70 degrees in January.

But The World Has Not Warmed Since 1997...

There is an often quoted issue of 1997 being the warmest year and that global temperatures have cooled since that time. This information is misleading. In 1997, the world climate was influenced by one of the strongest El Nino events ever recorded. This pool of very warm Pacific Ocean water bumped global temperatures higher. Temperatures have remained warmer than the long term average in the years since 1997 - just not quite as warm as that one spike.

During this past winter, the Pacific was in the midst of a La Nina - cooler sea surface temperatures. The result was a strong west to east jetstream flow over much of the U.S. that has blocked cold air from coming down from Canada - bringing record warmth to much of the country. In Colorado, we had the second warmest and the all-time driest March on record. At the same time, in Europe and Asia, very cold air has brought those areas a winter season that has been highlighted by record snows.

Frequency and Intensity of El Nino and La Nina

These periodic warming and cooling events in the ocean need to be taken into consideration over the long term, not used as singular examples of a change in the climate. However, as the overall temperature of the Earth increases, it is likely that we will see stronger versions of both El Nino and La Nina. The result will be increasingly severe individual episodes of heat and drought, storms and floods.

Frequently Used Red Herrings!

There is much discussion about the fact that the sun has by far the largest impact on our climate. The sun has certainly not been overlooked by the many experts worldwide that contributed to the most recent IPCC Assessment on climate. The periodic changes in solar output and the orbital changes are taken into account in the climate studies and modeling. In fact, the current solar output is slightly less than in previous decades - our climate should be cooling, but it is not.

Another comment often heard is that CO2 is just a tiny fraction of the atmosphere. Just because CO2 is a trace gas does not mean that it is not important in the equation. Small amounts do matter - I weigh 200 pounds, but it certainly does not take 200 pounds of arsenic to kill me.

The majority of climate scientists are in agreement that the overall warming of the planet (about 1.7 degrees Farhenheit since 1900), has been caused in part by mankind. This warming is due to the increase of so called "greenhouse gases" - such as CO2, methane and CFCs (chloro-fluorocarbons). These gases absorb outgoing heat from our planet and "reflect" it back to Earth. When this happens, energy from the Sun is trapped in our atmosphere and warms our climate.

The Greenhouse Effect

As often noted, the Greenhouse Effect is normal and natural, in fact if not for this effect, the Earth would be about 60 degrees Farenheit colder - a lifeless ice planet. The problem we face is that the delicate balance of temperature may be upset by a change in atmospheric chemistry.

In the past 200 years (since the Industrial Revolution) the increased burning of fossil fuels has released vast amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The concentration of CO2 has risen about 25% in the past two centuries from 280 parts per million to over 390 parts per million. Human activity releases about seven billion metric tons of carbon dioxide into the air every year - adding to the 750 billion metric tons that are already there.

Of the 7 billion tons, only about three billion tons stays in the atmosphere; the rest is absorbed by plants and the oceans. This "carbon sink" capacity complicates the issue of global warming, because the oceans have had a vast holding capacity for CO2. The oceans are becoming more acidic, however, and there is concern that this carbon sink capacity may reach a limit.

My Personal Thoughts

I am not a climate scientist, my expertise lies in a much, much shorter timeframe. However, I spend a great deal of time on-line and at seminars with many of the best climate scientists from NCAR and other research institutes from around the world.

My opinion is that we are indeed having a significant impact on the warming our climate, and this effect is making weather events more extreme. With a greater amount of energy in the climate system, there will be drier droughts, heavier rains (although more spotty), bigger winter storms and more powerful severe weather events such as tornadoes and hurricanes.

These events will not increase linearly, but in fits and starts. Over the decades to come, our weather will become more extreme than has been the norm since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.

Political Science vs Climate Science

The topic of climate change has been given much political attention and in that light, there is a seemingly large controversy about what is happening and to what extent mankind is helping to cause some of the changes. In the strict world of truly peer reviewed science, the degree of controversy is not as great as some would have you believe.

No doubt this is a serious issue on all sides. My greatest frustration is when it gets torn down into quick sound bites, fractured thought strings and vague conspiracy accusations between thousands of climate scientists.

I am always concerned about motive...

My mother was a heavy smoker in the 1960s, when there was no shortage of white coated scientists (sponsored by Big Tobacco) that claimed that there was not a definite link between smoking and lung cancer. I lost her to that disease 5 years ago.

My sister spent a lot of time in tanning booths in the 1980s. Again, there were plenty of "experts" that stated the rays from the tanning beds were different and actually "good" for you. She is now dying from stage 4 melanoma.

The fossil fuel industry has several orders of magnitude more money than either the tobacco or tanning industries to promote the status quo on their self interests. I am not the least bit surprised that they can parade "expert" after "expert" to say that anthropogenic global warming is some type of ginned up conspiracy. I just do not buy that line of thinking.

It is okay to have differing opinions - it is even a good thing, if the motives are pure science. Sadly, the main motive of the climate change skeptics is not physical science, but political science.

Planning and Preparing

It is very important that we study this topic with even greater effort in order to be able to take action for the future. This action may well be to use technology to bring ever increasing efficiencies to our society. Through a more efficient use of our fuels, we will be able to limit the amount of greenhouse gases released, while still enabling our complex technological society to function and thrive.

In the remote case that we found out in 50 years that humans did not have the power to change the climate, we will be much better off to have taken the steps to use less fuel and conserve our fragile planet.

Posted: Mar 6, 2012:

March is typically the snowiest month for Denver with an average of just over 11-inches recorded for the month. February is the 5th snowiest of our 12 months with just over 7-inches. However, we shattered records in February thanks to the snowstorm early in the month that dumped over 2-feet of snow over parts of the Denver metro area.

The snow totals in February were very impressive, and we fell just shy of the all-time snowiest February. Even the extra day in the month wasn't enough to bring the totals to the all-time February record of 22.1" back in 1912. The 2012 month will sit at number 2 all time with 20.2", most of it coming from the 15.9" of snow recorded in the first week of February.

So far, our snowiest month in 2012 is look anything but. The first week has seen only a trace and the next 10 days look very quiet, signaling little if any snow potential through the first half of the month. Of course, as February proved, it only takes a well placed storm to accumulate significant snow, so it's not out of the question that March could still live up to it's reputation.

Posted: Feb 19, 2012:

Attend this week's Colorado Environmental Film Festival!

The Colorado Environmental Film Festival (CEFF) is a celebration of the power of film to inspire, educate, and motivate audiences. CEFF presents thought-provoking films and dialogue that raise awareness of a wide variety of interconnected ecological, social, and economic themes. The Festival provides an experience for the audience that goes beyond passive film viewing: CEFF inspires audiences into awareness and action.

The goal of the CEFF is to leave audiences with a feeling that they can be a part of the solution to environmental problems. With a growing public awareness for the environment, the Festival aims to increase this groundswell through inspiring and educational films which hopefully will motivate people to go out and make a difference in their community and around the world. CEFF involves environmental organizations through an Expo Hall, where groups can share opportunities to get involved.

While the CEFF features national and international films, we also hope to highlight the works of local filmmakers and foster an interest in environmental film making through mentoring and a filmmaking forum. An important component is the opportunity for open discussion related to the films, either with filmmakers or with experts on the film's topic.

The goal is to model sustainability in all areas of the film festival, including: reducing waste and providing recycling at screenings and events (with a goal of "Zero Waste"); offsetting carbon emissions; using recycled materials; encouraging the use of public transportation and carpooling; supporting local, organic, and fair trade producers.

For more details, check out their website at www.CEFF.net

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