WASHINGTON, D.C. - The Republican National Committee is sending around an email with the subject line, “Holes in the Dem Coalition.” It highlights a trio of recent polls that show some of the Democrats most supportive groups getting cranky: Hispanics, young voters and unmarried women. If the exit polls from next week’s elections confirm these trends, it’s the Democrats who will be cranky as they inspect the 2016 tea leaves.
According to a new poll from the Pew Research Center, Hispanics support Democrats by large but diminishing margins. Among Hispanic voters surveyed, 57 percent support the Democrat in their district or lean that way; 28 percent support the Republican. That’s a big margin, but down from 65-22 percent in 2010.
The percentage of Hispanics who identify as Democrats is also down somewhat:
A Washington Post/ABC News poll out this week offers some confirmation. When asked about control of the Senate, 30 percent of the Hispanics polled said it would be a good thing if the Republicans took control, 50 percent it wouldn’t matter and just 15 percent said it would be a bad thing.
A poll of millennials out Wednesday from the Institute of Politics at Harvard found that 51 percent of the 18-29 year-olds who say they are definitely voting prefer a Republican Congress while 47 percent want Democratic control. The same Harvard poll conducted before the 2010 mid-terms showed that likely 18-29 year-old voters preferred the Democrats by a 55 to 43 percent margin.
There are some caveats here. The millenials polled disapprove of the Republicans in Congress by 72 percent to 23 percent. They disapprove of Democrats in Congress slightly less, 60 percent to 35 percent. And they disapprove of President Obama slightly less than that, 53 percent to 43 percent.
So why do they prefer a Republican Congress? Well, it’s only the young people who are definitely voting who feel that way, a sign that it is an anti-Obama mood that is motivating voters. As Mark Murray of NBC News points out, young voters still lean heavily Democratic, but they turnout less in midterms.
Unmarried women are the Most Valuable Population for Democrats lately. For the last four elections, well over 60 percent of single women have voted Democratic. But this week’s Post/ABC poll says right now the Dems have only a five-point edge, 48-43. That’s peanuts. This is closer than other recent polls, which show the margin tightening but not this much.
Democrats need to do very well with all these groups to win the tight Senate races next week, because they are doing poorly with just about everyone else. And that seems like a very long shot.